Recurrent shocks, poverty traps and the degradation of pastoralists’ social capital in southern Ethiopia
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This paper examines the long-term effects of shocks experienced by a traditional pastoral
community, with the aim of testing the micro-level poverty trap hypothesis. It uses the
instrumental probit technique to examine empirically the way that shocks, poverty traps, and
the social capital base of the pastoral livelihood system are connected. The results strongly
confirm that the likelihood of falling into permanent destitution is significantly associated
with recurrent exposure to covariate shocks. The detrimental effects of shocks are transmitted
through poverty traps that undermine the efficacy of the indigenous welfare system. Shockinduced
poverty has significantly eroded trust and confidence in the traditional social support
system and appears to have increased the dependence on aid agencies. These findings
emphasize the importance of focusing on innovative risk management initiatives and
substantial resource commitment to socioeconomic transformation in pastoral areas rather
than unduly emphasizing conventional emergency response operations.