Poverty Impacts of the Volume-Based Special Safeguard Mechanism
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World Bank Group, Washington, DC
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The volume-based Special Safeguard
Mechanism was proposed as essential for small, poor farmers
and became the proximate cause of the collapse of the Doha
Agenda negotiations in 2008. But is it helpful for these
farmers, given that it is likely to be applied when farm
output is depressed and many poor farmers in developing
countries need to buy food? Stochastic simulations for 31
countries suggest that use of this safeguard in line with
the proposed World Trade Organization rules would raise the
world poverty headcount by an average of 24 million. The
adverse poverty impact of the duty is larger when the
quantity safeguard is triggered than it would be in other
years, because lower farm output levels reduce or reverse
the benefits to poor farm households from higher prices.
Palabras clave
ABSOLUTE POVERTY, ADVERSE EFFECT, ADVERSE IMPACTS, AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT, AGRICULTURAL YIELDS, ARBITRAGE, AVERAGE PRICE, CHANGES IN POVERTY, COMMODITY, COMMODITY PRICE, CONSUMER PRICE, CONSUMER PRICES, COST OF LIVING, CROP YIELDS, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME, DOMESTIC PRICES, DROUGHT, ESTIMATES OF POVERTY, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, FARM HOUSEHOLDS, FARM INCOMES, FARM OUTPUT, FOOD ITEMS, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, FOOD SECURITY, GLOBAL MARKET, GLOBAL POVERTY, HOUSEHOLD BUDGET, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD INCOMES, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS, HOUSEHOLD WELFARE, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, INCOME, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES, INTERNATIONAL LAW, LIVELIHOOD SECURITY, LIVING STANDARDS, MARKET PARTICIPANTS, MARKET PRICES, MARKETING, MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES, NATIONAL POVERTY, NATURAL RESOURCES, OUTPUTS, POOR, POOR CONSUMERS, POOR COUNTRIES, POOR FARM HOUSEHOLDS, POOR FARMERS, POOR FARMING, POOR PRODUCERS, POVERTY ASSESSMENT, POVERTY ESTIMATES, POVERTY IMPACT, POVERTY INCREASE, POVERTY LINE, POVERTY RATE, POVERTY RATES, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRICE CHANGE, PRICE CHANGES, PRICE INCREASES, PRICE VOLATILITY, REDUCTION IN POVERTY, RURAL, RURAL AREAS, RURAL DEVELOPMENT, RURAL WELFARE, SAFEGUARDS, SALES, SEASONAL CONDITIONS, SMALL COUNTRIES, SMALL FARMERS, SOCIAL SAFETY NETS, SUBSISTENCE, SUBSTITUTES, SUBSTITUTION, SUPPLIER, SURPLUS, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, TRADE TAX, TRANSPARENCY, VOLATILITY, WAGE RATES, WELFARE LEVEL, WORLD MARKET, WORLD TRADE