Crop Prospects and Food Situation - No.4 October 2008
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World cereal production in 2008 is forecast to increase 4.9 percent to a record 2 232 million tonnes, considerably up from earlier predictions after better than expected results from the major harvests gathered in the past two months. Based on the latest production forecast, a significant improvement in the global supply and demand balance for cereals in the 2008/09 season can be expected. Even allowing for a larger increase in utilization than was reported in July, an 8 percent increase i n world cereal stocks could be possible. International prices of most cereals have continued to fall in the past two months, largely in response to favourable prospects for 2008 harvests and thus an improvement in the supply outlook for 2008/09, but also reflecting the influence of falling crude oil prices and financial turmoil in world economies...