The Middle-Income Trap Turns Ten

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dc.creatorKharas, Homi
dc.creatorGill, Indermit S.
dc.date2015-09-23T18:44:18Z
dc.date2015-09-23T18:44:18Z
dc.date2015-08
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T00:41:54Z
dc.descriptionSince we introduced the term “middle-income trap” in 2006, it has become popular among policy makers and researchers. In May 2015, a search of Google Scholar returned more than 3,000 articles including the term and about 300 articles with the term in the title. This paper provides a (non-exhaustive) survey of this literature. The paper then discusses what, in retrospect, we missed when we coined the term. Today, based on developments in East Asia, Latin America, and Central Europe during the past decade, we would have paid more attention to demographic factors, entrepreneurship, and external institutional anchors. We would also make it clearer that to us, the term was as much the absence of a satisfactory theory that could inform development policy in middle-income economies as the articulation of a development phenomenon. Three-quarters of the people in the world now live in middle-income economies, but economists have yet to provide a reliable theory of growth to help policy makers navigate the transition from middle- to high-income status. Hybrids of the Solow-Swan and Lucas-Romer models are not unhelpful, but they are poor substitutes for a well-constructed growth framework.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/08/24954519/middle-income-trap-turns-ten
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/22660
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-7403
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/409390
dc.languageEnglish
dc.languageen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relationPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 7403
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.rightsWorld Bank
dc.subjectMIC TRAPS
dc.subjectGROWTH RATES
dc.subjectMONETARY POLICY
dc.subjectCAPITAL MARKETS
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT RATES
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectCLOSED ECONOMIES
dc.subjectURBANIZATION
dc.subjectTRADE NEGOTIATIONS
dc.subjectCAPITAL ACCUMULATION
dc.subjectFOREIGN INVESTORS
dc.subjectSTRUCTURAL CHANGE
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINTEREST
dc.subjectMIDDLE- INCOME COUNTRY
dc.subjectEXPECTATIONS
dc.subjectEMERGING ECONOMIES
dc.subjectFLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATES
dc.subjectPROPERTY RIGHTS
dc.subjectEXCHANGE
dc.subjectECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
dc.subjectGDP PER CAPITA
dc.subjectLIQUIDITY
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectEXPORTS
dc.subjectELASTICITY
dc.subjectENTRY POINT
dc.subjectPOLITICAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectWORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
dc.subjectINCENTIVES
dc.subjectVARIABLES
dc.subjectENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY
dc.subjectPRICE
dc.subjectBENCHMARKS
dc.subjectSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectBANKRUPTCY
dc.subjectPROTECTIONISM
dc.subjectFREE TRADE
dc.subjectECONOMIC STRUCTURES
dc.subjectWAGE GROWTH
dc.subjectTRENDS
dc.subjectSAFETY NETS
dc.subjectECONOMIC OUTLOOK
dc.subjectCENTRAL BANK
dc.subjectEXTERNAL FINANCE
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectFOREIGN MARKETS
dc.subjectPER CAPITA INCOMES
dc.subjectADVANCED COUNTRIES
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL FINANCE
dc.subjectPUBLIC POLICY
dc.subjectLABOR MARKET
dc.subjectTOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectPER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subjectCURRENCY
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
dc.subjectLOW-INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectRENT
dc.subjectPOLITICAL POWER
dc.subjectDEMOCRACY
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATES
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectMIDDLE-INCOME ECONOMIES
dc.subjectEXTERNALITIES
dc.subjectINDUSTRIALIZATION
dc.subjectGLOBALIZATION
dc.subjectMARKETS
dc.subjectWTO
dc.subjectINCOME LEVELS
dc.subjectVENTURE CAPITAL
dc.subjectMIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectTRADE POLICY
dc.subjectNATURAL RESOURCES
dc.subjectCAPITAL INVESTMENTS
dc.subjectREAL ESTATE
dc.subjectLIBERALIZATION
dc.subjectECONOMIC RESEARCH
dc.subjectCARBON EMISSIONS
dc.subjectTAXES
dc.subjectGROWTH THEORIES
dc.subjectINSTITUTIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectDEREGULATION
dc.subjectEQUITY
dc.subjectINVESTORS
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
dc.subjectSOCIAL SAFETY NETS
dc.subjectHUMAN CAPITAL
dc.subjectTECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE
dc.subjectFEDERAL RESERVE
dc.subjectVALUE ADDED
dc.subjectECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
dc.subjectCAPITAL
dc.subjectWAGES
dc.subjectEFFICIENT CAPITAL
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL TRADE
dc.subjectVOLATILITY
dc.subjectBARRIERS
dc.subjectMARKET CONDITIONS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subjectSTARTUPS
dc.subjectMARKET PRICES
dc.subjectFUTURE
dc.subjectVALUE
dc.subjectCOMPETITIVENESS
dc.subjectFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
dc.subjectPATENTS
dc.subjectNATIONAL INCOME
dc.subjectKNOWLEDGE ECONOMY
dc.subjectDIVIDEND
dc.subjectECONOMY
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectINCOMES
dc.subjectMIDDLE- INCOME ECONOMIES
dc.subjectGROWTH MODELS
dc.subjectECONOMIC RENTS
dc.subjectINSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY
dc.subjectBALANCE SHEET
dc.subjectBENCHMARK
dc.subjectTRADE LIBERALIZATION
dc.subjectMIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRY
dc.subjectMIDDLE- INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectECONOMICS
dc.subjectTRADE DIVERSION
dc.subjectGOVERNANCE
dc.subjectINFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS
dc.subjectSOCIAL CAPITAL
dc.subjectREGIONAL INTEGRATION
dc.subjectECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectADVANCED COUNTRY
dc.subjectTRADE
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectGOODS
dc.subjectTHEORY
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectINVESTMENT
dc.subjectTOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
dc.subjectSHARE
dc.subjectCOMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE
dc.subjectFINANCIAL MARKETS
dc.subjectECONOMIC PROGRESS
dc.subjectBANKING
dc.subjectCURRENCY RISK
dc.subjectDECENTRALIZATION
dc.subjectMONEY MARKET
dc.subjectINVESTMENTS
dc.subjectRISK MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectINTELLECTUAL PROPERTY
dc.subjectCAPITAL FLOW
dc.subjectGROWTH THEORY
dc.subjectRAPID GROWTH
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC
dc.subjectCUSTOMERS
dc.subjectECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY
dc.subjectCAPITAL INVESTMENT
dc.subjectLABOR MARKETS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SECTOR
dc.subjectOPEN ECONOMIES
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
dc.subjectCAPITAL ACCOUNT
dc.subjectGROWTH POTENTIAL
dc.subjectMIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectGLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS
dc.subjectPRICES
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT POLICY
dc.subjectCOMPETITION
dc.titleThe Middle-Income Trap Turns Ten
dc.typeWorking Paper
dc.typeDocument de travail
dc.typeDocumento de trabajo

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