Analyzing the Dynamics of School Dropout in Upper Secondary Education in Latin America
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World Bank Group, Washington, DC
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This study examines trends in school
dropout at the upper secondary education level across Latin
America over the past two decades, and attempts to identify
factors influencing these rates. The methodology contributes
to the existing literature by employing repeated cross
sections of data to track the life cycle path of
representative groups of individuals belonging to a birth
cohort, by constructing and analyzing a synthetic data base
of household survey data from 18 countries. A key finding is
that while upper secondary enrollment rates increased in the
region, the proportion of upper secondary age youth dropping
out of school has remained persistently high, despite
relatively favorable macroeconomic conditions. Furthermore,
the study traces the moment in the life cycle at which the
majority of dropout takes place to reveal differences
between countries. Finally, to explain the trends in upper
secondary dropout rates, the study examines the impact of
three groups of factors: (i) shifts in the cohort size and
socioeconomic composition of the population eligible for
entering upper secondary education; (b) the macroeconomic
environment and labor market opportunities; and (c) the
returns to schooling. A series of regressions shows that an
important factor that may be driving higher dropout levels
has been the higher numbers of students from poor
socioeconomic backgrounds reaching the upper secondary
level. In addition, high returns to education have been a
pull factor into the schooling system, while, especially in
countries where the majority of youth dropout early (prior
to upper secondary education), the data confirm an apparent
substitution effect due to the opportunity cost of forgoing
employment opportunities. Overall, the findings confirm the
importance of policy makers' focus on upper secondary
education across Latin America and suggest implications for
focusing the policy agenda.
Palabras clave
SKILLS, COMPARATIVE EDUCATION, ECONOMIC GROWTH, BASIC EDUCATION, TEACHERS, DROPOUT RATE, SCHOOLING, SCHOOL DROPOUT, EARLY CHILDHOOD DEVELOPMENT, INTERACTIVE RADIO INSTRUCTION, MARGINAL COST, MARKET FACTORS, SKILLS DEVELOPMENT, SCHOOL ENROLLMENT, ATTENDANCE RATES, INTERACTIVE RADIO, EDUCATIONAL ACHIEVEMENT, EDUCATION POLICY, LABOR FORCE, DROPOUT PATTERNS, ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATES, HIGH SCHOOL, POLITICAL ECONOMY, EDUCATION OUTCOMES, EFFECTIVENESS OF EDUCATION SYSTEMS, HIGHER EDUCATION, EDUCATION EXPENDITURES, INCENTIVES, HIGHER ENROLLMENT, RE-ENTRY, MODELS, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, ADULTS, ACCESS TO EDUCATION, KNOWLEDGE, RESOURCES PER CHILD, COGNITIVE DEVELOPMENT, COMPLETION RATES, GENDER GAP, QUALITY OF EDUCATION, TRAINING, TEACHER TRAINING, DEMAND FOR EDUCATION, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, POPULATION GROWTH, ECONOMETRICS, OPTIONS, SECONDARY SCHOOL, PRIMARY SCHOOL ATTENDANCE, PRIMARY SCHOOLING, STUDENT ACHIEVEMENT, VOCATIONAL EDUCATION, LEARNING, EDUCATION SYSTEM, SCHOOL QUALITY, PRIMARY SCHOOL, SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS, NATURAL RESOURCES, PRIMARY COMPLETION RATES, RADIO, SCHOOL- AGE, RESOURCES, EDUCATION SYSTEMS, UNEMPLOYMENT, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, BENEFITS OF EDUCATION, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, DROPOUT RATES, INVESTMENT IN EDUCATION, PRIMARY COMPLETION, STUDENT POPULATION, ENROLLMENT RATES, WAGES, EFFECTIVENESS OF EDUCATION, VALUES, SCHOOLS, SCHOOL ATTENDANCE, EFFECTIVE TEACHERS, EDUCATION REFORM, ECONOMIC VALUE, POLICY MAKERS, EDUCATION SERVICES, LEARNING OUTCOMES, PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS, CREDIT, PURCHASING POWER, DEMAND, EXPANSION OF EDUCATION, ENROLLMENT RATE, MARGINAL BENEFITS, MARGINAL COSTS, EDUCATIONAL QUALITY, EXPENDITURES, PARENTAL PRIORITIES, EARLY CHILDHOOD, DECISION MAKING, CLASS SIZE, HIGH DROPOUT, EDUCATIONAL SERVICES, OPPORTUNITY COSTS, TRANSACTION COSTS, ENVIRONMENT, SCHOOL IMPROVEMENT, COHORT ANALYSIS, ADOLESCENTS, EARLY DROPOUT, TEACHER, DISCOUNT RATES, QUALITY OF EDUCATION SERVICES, RADIO INSTRUCTION, ECONOMIC FACTORS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, TRADE, ENROLLMENT LEVELS, EDUCATION EXPANSION, SCHOLARSHIP PROGRAMS, EDUCATION, COST PER STUDENT, SCHOOL PERFORMANCE, CLASS SIZES, PRIVATE COSTS, HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT, PRIMARY EDUCATION, FORMAL SCHOOLING, LABOR MARKETS, CLASSROOM, SCHOOL, SECONDARY EDUCATION, SCHOOL ENVIRONMENT, DEMOGRAPHICS, PRICES, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, SCHOOL AGE, RETURNS TO EDUCATION