Can We Measure Resilience? A Proposed Method and Evidence from Countries in the Sahel
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World Bank Group, Washington, DC
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Although resilience has become a popular
concept in studies of poverty and vulnerability, it has been
difficult to obtain a credible measure of resilience. This
difficulty is because the data required to measure
resilience, which involves observing household outcomes over
time after every exposure to a shock, are usually
unavailable in many contexts. This paper proposes a new
method for measuring household resilience using readily
available cross section data. Intuitively, a household is
considered resilient if there is very little difference
between the pre- and post-shock welfare. By obtaining
counterfactual welfare for households before and after a
shock, households are classified as chronically poor,
non-resilient, and resilient. This method is applied to four
countries in the Sahel. It is found that Niger, Burkina
Faso, and Northern Nigeria have high percentages of
chronically poor: respectively, 48, 34, and 27 percent. In
Senegal, only 4 percent of the population is chronically
poor. The middle group, the non-resilient, accounts for
about 70 percent of the households in Senegal, while in the
other countries it ranges between 34 and 38 percent.
Resilient households account for about 33 percent in all
countries except Niger, where the share is around 18 percent.
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ACCESS TO CREDIT, ACCESS TO INFRASTRUCTURE, ADEQUATE NUTRITION, AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES, AGRICULTURAL INPUTS, AGRICULTURE, AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION, ARID TROPICS, ASSET OWNERSHIP, ASSET SALES, ASSETS, BASE YEAR, BORROWING, CHILD HEALTH, CHRONIC POVERTY, CHRONICALLY POOR, CITIZENS, CIVIL WAR, CLIMATE CHANGE, CONFLICT, CONSUMPTION DATA, CONSUMPTION LEVELS, CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA, CONSUMPTION SMOOTHING, COUNTERFACTUAL, CREDIT CAPACITY, CREDIT MARKET, CREDIT MARKET CONSTRAINTS, CREDIT MARKETS, DEBT, DEMOGRAPHIC COMPOSITION, DEPENDENCY RATIO, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT FINANCE, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DISCOUNT RATE, DIVERSIFICATION, DRINKING WATER, DROUGHT, ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS, ECONOMETRICS, ECONOMIC AGENTS, ECONOMIC CRISES, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC RESEARCH, EDUCATIONAL LEVEL, EMPLOYMENT STATUS, ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY, EXPECTED UTILITY, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT EARNINGS, EXTREME POVERTY, FAMILY PLANNING, FAMILY RELATIONSHIPS, FARM ACTIVITIES, FARM INCOME, FARM SYSTEMS, FARMERS, FERTILITY, FERTILITY RATES, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FIREWOOD, FOOD EXPENDITURE, FOOD INSECURITY, FOOD POVERTY, FOOD SECURITY, FREE ASSET, FUTURE RESEARCH, GENDER, GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCE, GOOD GOVERNANCE, GROUP ACCOUNTS, GROWTH RATE, HEALTH CARE, HOUSEHOLD BUDGET, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION, HOUSEHOLD HEAD, HOUSEHOLD HEAD AGE, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD INCOMES, HOUSEHOLD SIZE, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS, HOUSEHOLD VULNERABILITY, HOUSEHOLDS, HOUSING, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, HUNGER INSURANCE, INCOME DYNAMICS, INCOME SHOCKS, INCOME SMOOTHING, INDIVIDUAL HOUSEHOLDS, INEQUALITY, INFORMAL INSURANCE, INSURANCE MARKETS, INTEREST RATE, INTERNATIONAL BANK, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, INVESTMENT PLANS, LEVEL OF POVERTY, LEVELS OF CONSUMPTION, LEVELS OF EDUCATION, LIMITED ACCESS, LIVELIHOOD STRATEGIES, LIVING CONDITIONS, LIVING STANDARDS, LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES, MALNUTRITION, MARGINAL UTILITY, MARITAL STATUS, MARKET CONSTRAINTS, NATIONAL POVERTY, NATIONAL POVERTY LINE, NATURAL DISASTERS, NUMBER OF CHILDREN, NUMBER OF GIRLS, NUMBER OF PEOPLE, NUTRITION, OLD AGE, PERMANENT INCOME, POLICY DISCUSSIONS, POLICY IMPLICATIONS, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POLITICAL ECONOMY, POOR HOUSEHOLDS, POOR POPULATION, POVERTY LEVELS, POVERTY LINE, PRIMARY EDUCATION, PRODUCTIVE ASSETS, PROGRESS, PUBLIC ASSISTANCE, PUBLIC SAFETY NETS, PUBLIC SERVICES, RADIO, REGIONAL DUMMIES, REGIONAL STUDIES, REMITTANCES, REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH, RESOURCE CONSTRAINT, RISK AVERSION, RISK MANAGEMENT, RISK SHARING, RISK-AVERSE INDIVIDUALS, RURAL, RURAL CREDIT, RURAL ECONOMY, RURAL HOUSEHOLD, RURAL HOUSEHOLDS, SAFETY NET, SAFETY NETS, SAVINGS, SECONDARY EDUCATION, SEX, SOCIAL ASSISTANCE, SOCIAL NETWORK, SOCIAL PROTECTION, SOCIAL SAFETY NETS, SOCIAL SECURITY, SOCIAL TENSIONS, SOURCE OF DRINKING WATER, SOURCES OF INCOME, TELEVISION, TRANSITION ECONOMIES, TV, UTILITY FUNCTION, VILLAGE, VILLAGE ECONOMIES, VILLAGES, VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT, VULNERABILITY TO POVERTY, VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS, WAR, WEALTH, WELFARE INDICATORS, WELFARE LEVEL, WELFARE MEASURE, WELFARE MEASURES