Pakistan : Finding the Path to Job-Enhancing Growth
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Islamabad: World Bank
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Pakistan's rebound from the global
financial crisis has been slow and fragile, and unless the
economy changes course swiftly, it could face its second
balance of payments crisis in five years. Its recovery from
the 2008-09 global financial crisis has been the weakest in
South Asia, with a double dip pattern. This report
identifies conditions for a sustainable job-enhancing growth
agenda for Pakistan. Policy must target both goals as they
are closely intertwined. Higher growth rates can be achieved
through productivity improvements (technology, innovation,
better economic governance), but also from higher output
extracted from factors-physical capital, labor, human
capital, and land. This report considers whether Pakistan
should pursue historical growth of 4.3 percent a year,
supported by piecemeal structural reforms leading to partial
and unsatisfactory outcomes-or rapid growth of 7 percent,
requiring comprehensive big-bang reforms. The report is
organized around three major themes: (i) the stylized facts,
what are the pluses and minuses of Pakistan's patterns
of growth and job creation? (ii) the diagnostics, what is
holding back Pakistan's growth? And (iii) the
transformational agenda, what are the core ingredients of
job-enhancing growth? And how can analysis of the political
economy identify policy tradeoffs?
Palabras clave
ACCOUNTABILITY, ACCOUNTING, ACCOUNTING MODELS, ADB, AGGREGATE DEMAND, AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY, AGRICULTURAL TRADE, AGRICULTURE, ALTERNATIVE DISPUTE RESOLUTION, ANNUAL GROWTH, ANTI-EXPORT BIAS, AUDITS, AUTONOMY, AVERAGE GROWTH, AVERAGE INCOME, BAD GOVERNANCE, BANKING SECTOR, BANKING SECTOR REFORMS, BANKING SYSTEM, BANKS, BENCHMARK, BENCHMARKING, BONDS, BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, CENTRAL BANK, CITIZEN, CITY GOVERNANCE, CIVIL SERVICE, CIVIL UNREST, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSOLIDATED SUPERVISION, CONSOLIDATION, CONSUMERS, CORPORATE GOVERNANCE, CORPORATE SECTOR, CORRUPTION, CRIME, CRISES, DEBT, DECISION TREE, DEMOCRATIC REGIMES, DEVELOPMENT BUDGET, DEVELOPMENT GOALS, DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS, DEVELOPMENT REPORT, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY, DEVOLUTION, DIRECT INVESTMENT, DOMESTIC CREDIT, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC EXPANSION, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC RELATIONS, ECONOMIC SITUATION, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, ELASTICITY, EMERGING MARKETS, EMPLOYMENT, ENTERPRISE GOVERNANCE, ENTREPRENEURSHIP, EXCISE TAXES, EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL TRADE, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL FLOWS, FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION, FISCAL DEFICITS, FISCAL POLICIES, FISCAL POLICY, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FUEL TAXES, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GINI COEFFICIENT, GOVERNANCE CHALLENGE, GOVERNANCE INDICATORS, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROWTH PATH, GROWTH POLICIES, GROWTH POTENTIAL, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HARD BUDGET CONSTRAINTS, HEADCOUNT POVERTY, HIGH ELASTICITY, HIGH GROWTH, HOUSING, HUMAN CAPITAL, HUMAN RESOURCE, IMPROVING GOVERNANCE, INCOME, INCOME LEVEL, INDUSTRIAL POLICY, INEQUALITY, INFLATION, INSURANCE, INTEREST RATES, INTERGOVERNMENTAL FISCAL RELATIONS, INTERNAL CASH GENERATION, INTERNATIONAL FORUMS, INTERNATIONAL RESERVES, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKET, LAWS, LEGAL FRAMEWORK, LEGISLATION, LEVEL PLAYING FIELD, LIQUIDATION, LIVING STANDARDS, LOCAL GOVERNMENTS, LONG-TERM GROWTH, MACROECONOMIC IMBALANCES, MACROECONOMIC INSTABILITY, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, MACROECONOMIC POLICY, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MACROECONOMIC STANCE, MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES, MACROECONOMICS, MARKET FAILURES, MEDIUM TERM, MICROFINANCE, MIGRATION, MONETARY POLICIES, NATIONAL FRAMEWORK, NATIONAL INCOME, NATURAL ENDOWMENTS, NATURAL RESOURCES, NEW ENTRANTS, OUTPUT GAP, PARLIAMENT, PAYMENTS CRISIS, PENALTIES, PENSIONS, PER CAPITA GROWTH, PER CAPITA INCOMES, POINT DECLINE, POLICY MEASURES, POLICY OPTIONS, POLICY REFORMS, POLITICAL COMMITMENT, POLITICAL ECONOMY, POLITICAL ECONOMY OF REFORM, POLITICAL INSTABILITY, POLITICAL INTERFERENCE, POLITICAL LEADERSHIP, POLITICAL PARTIES, POLITICAL STABILITY, POSITIVE EFFECTS, POVERTY RATE, POVERTY RATES, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRIMARY EDUCATION, PRIME MINISTER, PRIVATIZATION, PRO-POOR, PRO-POOR GROWTH, PRODUCTIVITY, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE, PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC POLICY, PUBLIC PROCUREMENT, PUBLIC SECTOR, PUBLIC SECTOR MANAGEMENT, PURCHASING POWER, PURCHASING POWER PARITY, RAPID GROWTH, REAL GDP, REAL INTEREST RATES, REFORM EFFORTS, REGULATORY FRAMEWORK, REGULATORY REGIME, RISING DEMAND, RURAL ACTIVITIES, RURAL AREAS, SAVINGS, SERVICE DELIVERY, SOCIAL OUTCOMES, SOCIAL PROTECTION, SOCIAL SAFETY NETS, STATE BANK OF PAKISTAN, STATE ENTERPRISES, STRUCTURAL CHANGE, TAX LAWS, TAX REFORM, TAX REVENUES, TAXATION, TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE, TELECOMMUNICATIONS, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, TOTAL OUTPUT, TRADE COMPETITIVENESS, TRADE FLOWS, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, TRADE POLICY, TRADE REFORMS, TRANSPARENCY, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNSKILLED LABOR, URBAN DEVELOPMENT, URBAN SERVICES, VALUATION, VALUE ADDED, WAGES, WEALTH, YOUNG WOMEN, YOUTH, YOUTH DEVELOPMENT