Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America

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dc.creatorHernandez, Manuel A.
dc.creatorCeballos, Francisco
dc.creatorBerrospi, Maria Lucia
dc.creatorPerego, Viviana M. E.
dc.creatorBrown, Melissa
dc.creatorLopez, Elena Mora
dc.date2026-01
dc.date2025-10-22T19:04:49Z
dc.date2025-10-22T19:04:49Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:25:02Z
dc.descriptionRecent global shocks have triggered sharp spikes in international food and fertilizer prices, raising concerns about their domestic impacts. This study examines the extent to which international price levels and volatility are transmitted to domestic food and fertilizer markets in seven Central American countries. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach using monthly data over the period 2000–2024. While results vary by country and commodity, we find overall low to moderate elasticities of price transmission in levels, but a stronger degree of volatility transmission in the very short term (1-month). Interestingly, price transmission tends to strengthen after 3 months, whereas volatility transmission is more short-lived and appears to dissipate. The co-movement between international and domestic prices shows no apparent trend over time and lacks consistency across countries and commodities following major global events. Back-of-the-envelope simulations of higher international food and fertilizer prices suggest modest, though non-negligible, impacts on local consumer and producer welfare. JEL Classification: Q02, Q11, C32
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/177271
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/103743
dc.languageen
dc.publisherWiley
dc.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/162957
dc.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/41665
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.01.015
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12184
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.04.012
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbt020
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2013.06.013
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceHernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Perego, Viviana M. E.; Brown, Melissa; and Lopez, Elena Mora. 2026. Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America. Agricultural Economics 57(1): e70071. https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.70071
dc.subjectfertilizers
dc.subjectfood prices
dc.subjectshock
dc.subjectvolatility
dc.subjectprices
dc.subjecteconometrics
dc.titlePrice and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America
dc.typeJournal Article

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)