Lao PDR Economic Monitor, December 2011
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World Bank, Vientiane
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The Lao PDR economy continues to grow
vigorously at 8 percent this year despite the impact of
typhoons and slower growth in the global economy. That being
said, the country's growth estimate was revised
slightly downwards to 8 percent from an early estimate of
8.6 percent to account for (i) the adverse impact on
agriculture by the typhoons Haima and Nock ten during the
second half of the year as well as the adverse impact of the
current flooding in Thailand on Lao PDR's tourism and
trade sectors; (ii) an upward revision of 2010 Goss Domestic
Product (GDP) due to a higher than anticipated output of
electricity generation from the Nam Theun 2 project; and
(iii) the commencement of operations at the Nam Ngum 2
hydropower dam. The mining sector's contribution to
growth in 2011 is expected to slow according to company
production plans and actual outputs in the first 3 quarters
of this year. The manufacturing sector is projected to grow
at 15 percent driven by garment, construction materials, and
food and beverage production. The garment sector started
shifting production towards higher value-added products and
began benefiting this year from the European Union (EU)
relaxing material sourcing regulations for LDCs. The
services sector is also benefiting from higher domestic
demand, particularly for wholesale, retail trading and
telecommunications. With significant challenges and risks
ahead - increasing uncertainties, particularly on signs of
spreads of debt concerns in Europe, over-heating in emerging
economies (high inflation) and price volatility, global
economic growth is projected to slow in 2011 and 2012.
Emerging and developing economies are projected to
experience healthy growth in the near term. Challenges lie
on two main fronts, i.e. rebalancing from public to private
demand, particularly in advanced economies and rebalancing
domestic demand, particularly in emerging and developing
economies in order to promote resilience to external shocks
and further reduce inflationary pressures. This paper bases
its country-level projections for Lao PDR's Foreign
Direct Investment (FDI) and export demand on International
Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank's projections
(EAP Update Nov-2011) for the regional and global economic
outlook and commodity prices.
Palabras clave
ADVANCED ECONOMIES, ADVERSE IMPACT, AGRICULTURE, AVERAGE OIL PRICE, BALANCE OF PAYMENT, BANK DEBT, BANK LIQUIDITY, BANK OFFICE, BROAD MONEY, BUDGET CONSTRAINTS, BUDGET DEFICIT, CAPITAL ACCOUNT, CAPITAL GOODS, CAPITAL GOODS IMPORTS, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CENTRALIZATION, COMMODITY, COMMODITY EXPORT, COMMODITY PRICE, CONSUMER GOODS, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMERS, CONSUMPTION GOODS, CORE INFLATION, CREDIT GROWTH, CREDITS, CURRENCY, CURRENCY BOARDS, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS, DEBT, DEBT CRISIS, DEBT OUTSTANDING, DEBT SERVICE, DEBT SERVICE RATIOS, DEBT SOURCE, DEBT SUSTAINABILITY, DEFICITS, DEPOSIT, DEPRECIATION, DEVELOPING ECONOMIES, DISBURSEMENT, DIVIDEND, DOMESTIC DEMAND, ECONOMIC CRISIS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, EMERGING ECONOMIES, EXCESS LIQUIDITY, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATE POLICY, EXCISE TAX, EXPENDITURE, EXPORT EARNINGS, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL BALANCE, EXTERNAL DEBT, EXTERNAL SHOCKS, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL EXPENDITURES, FOOD PRICES, FOREIGN ASSET, FOREIGN CURRENCY, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES, FOREIGN INVESTMENTS, FUTURES, FUTURES MARKETS, GDP, GDP DEFLATOR, GDP PER CAPITA, GENERALIZED SYSTEM OF PREFERENCES, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GLOBAL MARKETS, GOLD, GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, GOVERNMENT FINANCE, GOVERNMENT REVENUE, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROWTH PROJECTIONS, HIGH INFLATION, IMPORT, INCOME, INFLATION, INFLATIONARY PRESSURE, INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS, INTEREST PAYMENTS, INTERNATIONAL RESERVES, INVESTMENT PROJECTS, LDCS, LEVEL OF DEBT, M2, MACROECONOMIC POLICY, MAJOR CURRENCIES, MONETARY FUND, NATURAL DISASTERS, NON-PERFORMING LOAN, NPL, OIL COMMODITIES, OIL PRICE, OUTPUT, PORTFOLIO, PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT, PRICE MOVEMENTS, PRICE VOLATILITY, PUBLIC DEBT, PURCHASING POWER, PURCHASING POWER PARITY, RAPID EXPANSION, REAL GDP, REMOTE AREAS, REPATRIATION, RESERVE, RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, RETAIL TRADING, RISK OF DEBT, SECURITIES, SHORT-TERM DEPOSITS, SLOWDOWN, STOCK EXCHANGE, STRONG CAPITAL INFLOWS, SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS, TAX, TAX REVENUE, TAXATION, TELECOMMUNICATIONS, TERM DEPOSITS, TOTAL DEPOSIT, TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT, TOTAL REVENUE, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE DEFICIT, TRADE SECTORS, TRADE SURPLUS, TRADING PARTNERS, UNCERTAINTY, VALUE ADDED, WEIGHTS, WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, WORLD TRADE