Oil and Civil Conflict : Can Public Spending Have a Mitigation Effect?
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World Bank Group, Washington, DC
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This paper explores the conditions under
which public spending could minimize violent conflict
related to oil wealth. Previous work suggests that oil can
lead to violent conflict because it increases the value of
the state as a prize or because it undermines the
state's bureaucratic penetration. Yet, little has been
said on how oil wealth could be used to prevent the onset of
violent conflict through public spending by buying off
citizens and elites, increasing state legitimacy by
providing basic services, or strengthening the military and
security apparatus. The empirical analysis (148 countries
over 1960-2009) shows that higher levels of military
spending are associated with lower risk of small- and
large-scale conflict onset in countries rich in oil and gas.
By contrast, in economies with little natural resources,
increases in military spending are associated with a higher
risk of conflict. Welfare expenditure is associated with
lower risk of small-scale conflict, irrespective of the
level of oil revenue. However, general government spending
does not appear to have any robust mitigating effects.
Palabras clave
ADEQUATE EDUCATION, ADULT LITERACY, ARMED CONFLICT, ARMED FORCE, ARMED FORCES, ARMS, BASIC HUMAN NEEDS, BATTLE, CITIZEN, CITIZENS, CIVIL CONFLICT, CIVIL CONFLICTS, CIVIL LIBERTIES, CIVIL PEACE, CIVIL SERVICE, CIVIL UNREST, CIVIL WAR, CIVIL WARS, COERCION, COLD WAR, CONFLICT, CONFLICT MANAGEMENT, CONFLICT PREVENTION, CONFLICT RESEARCH, CONFLICT RESOLUTION, CONFLICT RISK, CONFLICT RISKS, CONFLICTS, COST OF REBELLION, DEATHS, DEMOCRACY, DEMOCRACY SCORE, DEPENDENCE, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DISPUTES, DOMESTIC VIOLENCE, DURATION OF CONFLICT, DURATION OF PEACE, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES, ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, ENERGY CONSUMPTION, ETHNIC DIVISIONS, ETHNIC GROUP, ETHNIC HETEROGENEITY, ETHNIC POLITICS, FERTILITY, FIGHTING, FOUNDATIONS, GENOCIDE, GOVERNMENT POWER, HEALTH SECTOR, HIGH RISK, HUMAN CAPITAL, HUMAN CAPITAL FORMATION, IMF, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCOME PER CAPITA, INCREASE IN RISK, INFANT, INFANT MORTALITY, INTERNAL CONFLICT, INTERNATIONAL BANK, INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION, INTERNATIONAL SECURITY, INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, INTERNATIONAL WAR, INTERPERSONAL SKILLS, INVESTMENT IN EDUCATION, JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION, LACK OF DEMOCRACY, LEVEL OF POVERTY, LIMITED RESOURCES, LINGUISTIC FRACTIONALIZATION, LITERACY RATES, LIVING STANDARDS, MATERIAL RESOURCES, MILITARIZATION, MILITARY BUDGETS, MILITARY EXPENDITURE, MILITARY EXPENDITURES, MILITARY FORCES, MILITARY OPPOSITION, MILITARY PERSONNEL, MILITARY REGIMES, MILITARY SPENDING, NATIONAL DEFENSE, NATIONALISM, NATIONS, NATURAL GAS, NATURAL RESOURCE, NATURAL RESOURCES, OBSERVER, OPPORTUNITY COST, PEACE, PEACE RESEARCH, PENSIONS, PERSONAL ENRICHMENT, POLICE, POLICY DISCUSSIONS, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POLITICAL CHANGE, POLITICAL INSTABILITY, POLITICAL LEADERSHIP, POLITICAL OPPOSITION, POLITICAL PARTICIPATION, POLITICAL PROCESS, POLITICAL RIGHTS, POLITICAL STABILITY, POLITICAL SUPPORT, POLITICAL VIOLENCE, POPULATION SIZE, POPULOUS COUNTRIES, POST-CONFLICT, PROGRESS, PUBLIC SERVICE, PUBLIC SERVICES, QUALITY OF LIFE, REBEL, REBEL GROUP, REBEL GROUPS, REBEL RECRUITMENT, REBELLION, REBELS, RECONSTRUCTION, RELIGIOUS FRACTIONALIZATION, RESOURCE MOBILIZATION, REVOLUTIONS, RISK OF CONFLICT, RISKS OF CONFLICT, RURAL AREAS, SAFETY NETS, SANITATION, SECONDARY EDUCATION, SECURITY FORCES, SERVICE DELIVERY, SOCIAL COHESION, SOCIAL EXPENDITURES, SOCIAL MOBILITY, SOCIAL POLICIES, SOCIAL SECTORS, SOCIAL SECURITY, SOCIAL WELFARE, STATE UNIVERSITY, TERRORISM, TOLERANCE, UNEMPLOYMENT, VICTIMS, VIOLENT CONFLICT, VIOLENT CONFLICTS, VIOLENT MEANS, WAR DURATION, WAR ECONOMY, WAR PROJECT, WARFARE, WORLD DEVELOPMENT, YOUNG MALE, YOUNG PEOPLE, YOUNG SOLDIERS