Determinants of Economic Growth : A Bayesian Panel Data Approach

Moral-Benito, Enrique

Determinants of Economic Growth : A Bayesian Panel Data Approach

Autores

Descripción

Model uncertainty hampers consensus on the key determinants of economic growth. Some recent cross-country, cross-sectional analyses have employed Bayesian Model Averaging to address the issue of model uncertainty. This paper extends that approach to panel data models with country-specific fixed effects. The empirical results show that the most robust growth determinants are the price of investment goods, distance to major world cities, and political rights. This suggests that growth-promoting policy strategies should aim to reduce taxes and distortions that raise the prices of investment goods; improve access to international markets; and promote democracy-enhancing institutional reforms. Moreover, the empirical results are robust to different prior assumptions on expected model size.

Palabras clave

ACCOUNTING, AVERAGE GROWTH, AVERAGE GROWTH RATE, BENCHMARK, CALCULATIONS, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, CIVIL LIBERTIES, CONDITIONAL CONVERGENCE, CONTRIBUTION, CONVERGENCE PARAMETER, COUNTRY REGRESSIONS, COVARIANCE MATRIX, CROSS COUNTRY, CROSS COUNTRY EVIDENCE, CROSS-COUNTRY REGRESSION, DATA AVAILABILITY, DATA SET, DEMOCRACY, DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS, DEPENDENT VARIABLE, DETERMINANTS OF GROWTH, DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH, DYNAMIC PANEL, DYNAMIC STRUCTURE, ECONOMETRIC MODEL, ECONOMETRICS, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC INTEGRATION, ECONOMIC REFORM, ECONOMIC REVIEW, ECONOMICS, EMPIRICAL APPROACHES, EMPIRICAL ESTIMATES, EMPIRICAL GROWTH MODEL, EMPIRICAL GROWTH REGRESSIONS, EMPIRICAL MODEL, EMPIRICAL RESEARCH, EMPIRICAL RESULTS, EMPIRICAL STUDIES, ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES, EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL, ERROR TERM, ESTIMATED MODELS, EXPLANATORY VARIABLES, EXPORTS, FIXED EFFECTS, FUTURE RESEARCH, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GROWTH CONTEXT, GROWTH DATA, GROWTH DETERMINANTS, GROWTH EMPIRICS, GROWTH LITERATURE, GROWTH MODEL, GROWTH MODELS, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATE OF POPULATION, GROWTH RATES, GROWTH REGRESSION, GROWTH REGRESSIONS, GROWTH THEORIES, GROWTH-PROMOTING POLICY, INCOME, INCOME DATA, INCOME DIFFERENCES, INCREASING RETURNS, INDEPENDENT VARIABLES, INVESTMENT RATE, LABOR FORCE, LAGGED DEPENDENT, LANDLOCKED COUNTRIES, LIFE EXPECTANCY, LINEAR REGRESSION, LOGARITHMIC SCALE, LONG-TERM GROWTH, MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MACROECONOMICS, MALARIA, MONETARY ECONOMICS, NATURAL ENDOWMENTS, NATURAL RESOURCE, NATURAL RESOURCE ABUNDANCE, NORMAL DISTRIBUTION, OPPORTUNITY SET, POINT ESTIMATES, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POLICY STRATEGIES, POLITICAL ECONOMY, POLITICAL POWER, POLITICAL RIGHTS, POPULATION DENSITY, POPULATION GROWTH, PRIMARY EDUCATION, PRIVATE SECTOR, PROBABILITIES, PROBABILITY, PRODUCTIVITY, PROGRESS, PROSPERITY, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC POLICY, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, REAL GDP, RESPECT, SECONDARY EDUCATION, SERIAL CORRELATION, SOCIAL RESEARCH, SOURCES OF INCOME, TAXATION, TRADE OPENNESS, TRADE POLICIES, URBAN AREAS, URBAN POPULATION, WAR, WORTH