Food Security and Wheat Prices in
            Afghanistan : A Distribution-sensitive Analysis of
            Household-level Impacts

D'Souza, Anna; Jolliffe, Dean

Food Security and Wheat Prices in Afghanistan : A Distribution-sensitive Analysis of Household-level Impacts

Autores

D'Souza, Anna

Jolliffe, Dean

Editor

World Bank, Washington, DC

Descripción

This paper investigates the impact of increases in wheat flour prices on household food security using unique nationally-representative data collected in Afghanistan from 2007 to 2008. It uses a new estimator, the Unconditional Quantile Regression estimator, based on influence functions, to examine the marginal effects of price increases at different locations on the distributions of several food security measures. The estimates reveal that the negative marginal effect of a price increase on food consumption is two and a half times larger for households that can afford to cut the value of food consumption (75th quantile) than for households at the bottom (25th quantile) of the food-consumption distribution. Similarly, households with diets high in calories reduce intake substantially, but those at the bottom of the calorie distribution (25th quantile) make very small changes in intake as a result of the price increases. In contrast, households at the bottom of the dietary diversity distribution make the largest adjustments in the quality of their diets, since such households often live at subsistence levels and cannot make large cuts in caloric intake without suffering serious health consequences. These results provide empirical evidence that when faced with staple-food price increases, food-insecure households sacrifice quality (diversity) in order to protect calories. The large differences in behavioral responses of households that lie at the top and bottom of these distributions suggest that policy analyses relying solely on ordinary least squares estimates may be misleading.

Palabras clave

ACCESS TO FOOD, ACCESS TO MARKETS, ACCESS TO SERVICES, AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, AGRICULTURAL LAND, AGRICULTURE, AVERAGE PRICES, BREAD, CALORIC INTAKE, CALORIE INTAKE, CALORIES PER DAY, CALORIES PER PERSON, CALORIES PER PERSON PER DAY, CENTRAL REGION, CHILD NUTRITION, COMMODITY PRICE, COMMODITY PRICES, CONDIMENTS, CONFLICT, CONSUMPTION QUINTILES, COOKING, DIETARY DIVERSITY, DRINKING WATER, DROUGHT, DURABLE GOODS, ECONOMIC SHOCK, ECONOMIC SHOCKS, FEMALE HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS, FOOD AID, FOOD COMPOSITION, FOOD CONSUMPTION, FOOD CONSUMPTION DATA, FOOD CONSUMPTION PATTERNS, FOOD EXPENDITURE, FOOD INSECURITY, FOOD INTAKE, FOOD ITEMS, FOOD NEEDS, FOOD POLICY, FOOD POVERTY, FOOD POVERTY LINE, FOOD PREFERENCES, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICE INFLATION, FOOD PRICES, FOOD QUANTITY, FOOD SECURITY, FOODS, FRUIT, GRAINS, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECURITY, HOUSEHOLD HEAD, HOUSEHOLD HEADS, HOUSEHOLD SIZE, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS, HOUSEHOLD WELFARE, HOUSING, IFPRI, INCOME, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INVENTORY, LAMB, MALNUTRITION, MARKET ACCESS, MARKET PRICE, MICRONUTRIENT DEFICIENCIES, MILK, MOUNTAINOUS AREAS, MOUNTAINOUS COUNTRY, NATIONAL POVERTY, NATIONAL POVERTY LINE, NATIONAL POVERTY RATE, NUTRIENT ABSORPTION, NUTRITION, NUTRITIONAL CONSEQUENCES, NUTRITIONAL STATUS, PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION, POOR HOUSEHOLDS, POOR INFRASTRUCTURE, POORER HOUSEHOLDS, POVERTY ASSESSMENT, POVERTY LINE, POVERTY REDUCTION, POVERTY STATUS, PRICE CHANGES, PRICE EFFECT, PRICE INCREASE, PRICE INCREASES, PRICE INDEX, PULSES, PURCHASING, RETAIL, RETAIL PRICES, RICE, RURAL, RURAL AREAS, RURAL INEQUALITY, RURAL POOR, RURAL REHABILITATION, SAFETY NET, SPICES, STAPLE FOODS, STOCKS, SUBSISTENCE, SUBSISTENCE FARMERS, SUBSTITUTE, SUGAR, SUPPLIERS, TARGETING, TRANSACTION COSTS, VEGETABLES, VOLATILITY, VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT, VULNERABLE GROUPS, VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS, WAGE EARNERS, WAGE PREMIUM, WFP, WHEAT, WHEAT FLOUR, WHEAT MARKETS, WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME