The Potential Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on World Trade

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dc.creatorMcKibbin, Warwick J.
dc.creatorStoeckel, Andrew
dc.date2012-03-19T19:14:02Z
dc.date2012-03-19T19:14:02Z
dc.date2009-11-01
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T01:13:59Z
dc.descriptionThis paper models the global financial crisis as a combination of shocks to global housing markets and sharp increases in risk premia of firms, households and international investors in a global economic model. The model has six sectors of production and trade in 15 major economies and regions. The paper shows that the shocks observed in financial markets can be used to generate the severe economic contraction in global trade and production experienced in 2009. In particular the distinction between the production and trade of durable and non durable goods plays a key role in explaining the much larger contraction in trade than GDP experienced by most economies. The paper explores the implications of the large increase in fiscal deficits and the implications of a global trade war in response to the financial crisis.
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dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20091118083139
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/4326
dc.identifier10.1596/1813-9450-5134
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/416330
dc.languageEnglish
dc.relationPolicy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5134
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.rightsWorld Bank
dc.subjectACCOUNTING
dc.subjectADVANCED ECONOMIES
dc.subjectADVERSE EFFECT
dc.subjectAGGREGATE SUPPLY
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectAMOUNT OF CAPITAL
dc.subjectARBITRAGE
dc.subjectASSET PRICE
dc.subjectASSET PRICES
dc.subjectASSET VALUATION
dc.subjectBAILOUTS
dc.subjectBALANCE SHEETS
dc.subjectBANK BORROWING
dc.subjectBANK GOVERNORS
dc.subjectBANK LENDING
dc.subjectBANK OPERATIONS
dc.subjectBANKING SYSTEMS
dc.subjectBANKRUPTCY
dc.subjectBASIS POINTS
dc.subjectBENCHMARK
dc.subjectBOND SPREADS
dc.subjectBOND YIELDS
dc.subjectBONDS
dc.subjectBUDGET CONSTRAINT
dc.subjectCAPITAL ACCUMULATION
dc.subjectCAPITAL FLOW
dc.subjectCAPITAL FLOWS
dc.subjectCAPITAL RAISING
dc.subjectCAPITAL STOCK
dc.subjectCARBON EMISSIONS
dc.subjectCASH TRANSFERS
dc.subjectCENTRAL BANK
dc.subjectCENTRAL BANK GOVERNORS
dc.subjectCENTRAL BANKS
dc.subjectCOMMODITY
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICE
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICES
dc.subjectCONSUMER LOANS
dc.subjectCONSUMERS
dc.subjectCORPORATE BONDS
dc.subjectCORPORATE TAX
dc.subjectCOST OF CAPITAL
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUSES
dc.subjectDEBT
dc.subjectDEFAULTS
dc.subjectDEFLATION
dc.subjectDEPOSITS
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRY
dc.subjectDEVELOPING ECONOMIES
dc.subjectDIRECT PAYMENTS
dc.subjectDISCOUNT RATES
dc.subjectDISPOSABLE INCOME
dc.subjectDOMESTIC BANKS
dc.subjectDOMESTIC ECONOMY
dc.subjectDRIVERS
dc.subjectDURABLE
dc.subjectDURABLE GOOD
dc.subjectDURABLE GOODS
dc.subjectDURABLES
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIC OUTLOOK
dc.subjectECONOMIC RECOVERY
dc.subjectELASTICITY
dc.subjectEQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectEQUITIES
dc.subjectEQUITY PRICES
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectEXPANSIONARY FISCAL POLICY
dc.subjectEXPECTED RETURNS
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE
dc.subjectEXPORTS
dc.subjectFAIR VALUE
dc.subjectFEDERAL RESERVE
dc.subjectFINANCIAL ASSETS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CAPITAL
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL FLOWS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL MARKETS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL REGULATION
dc.subjectFINANCIAL RISK
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SECTOR
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SHOCK
dc.subjectFINANCIAL STABILITY
dc.subjectFISCAL CONSOLIDATION
dc.subjectFISCAL DEFICIT
dc.subjectFISCAL DEFICITS
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICY
dc.subjectFORECASTS
dc.subjectFOREIGN BANK
dc.subjectFOREIGN CAPITAL
dc.subjectFOREIGN EXCHANGE
dc.subjectFREE BOND
dc.subjectFUTURE EARNINGS
dc.subjectFUTURE LABOR
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectGDP PER CAPITA
dc.subjectGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectGLOBAL CAPITAL
dc.subjectGLOBAL CAPITAL FLOWS
dc.subjectGLOBAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectGLOBAL TRADE
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT BONDS
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT BORROWING
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT DEBT
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT DEFICITS
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT INVESTMENT
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT SPENDING
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectGROWTH RATES
dc.subjectHOLDING
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD INCOME
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD WEALTH
dc.subjectHOUSING
dc.subjectHOUSING FINANCE
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINCOME EFFECT
dc.subjectINCOME ELASTICITY
dc.subjectINCOME TAX
dc.subjectINCOMES
dc.subjectINDUSTRIAL ECONOMIES
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectINFLATION RATE
dc.subjectINFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
dc.subjectINFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS
dc.subjectINSTRUMENT
dc.subjectINSURANCE
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL BANK
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL INVESTORS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL TRADE
dc.subjectINVENTORIES
dc.subjectINVENTORY
dc.subjectINVESTING
dc.subjectINVESTMENT DECISION
dc.subjectINVESTMENT DECISIONS
dc.subjectINVESTMENT INCOME
dc.subjectLABOR MARKET
dc.subjectLAWS
dc.subjectLDCS
dc.subjectLEGISLATION
dc.subjectLENDERS
dc.subjectLEVEL OF INTEREST RATES
dc.subjectLIQUIDITY
dc.subjectLOAN
dc.subjectLOCAL GOVERNMENTS
dc.subjectLOSS OF CONFIDENCE
dc.subjectLOW INTEREST RATES
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS
dc.subjectMACROECONOMICS
dc.subjectMARGINAL PRODUCT
dc.subjectMARKET VALUATION
dc.subjectMARKET VALUE
dc.subjectMARKET VALUES
dc.subjectMINIMUM WAGE
dc.subjectMONETARY AUTHORITIES
dc.subjectMONETARY POLICY
dc.subjectMORTGAGE
dc.subjectMORTGAGE MARKET
dc.subjectMORTGAGE MARKETS
dc.subjectNET EXPORTS
dc.subjectNOMINAL INTEREST RATE
dc.subjectNOMINAL INTEREST RATES
dc.subjectOPEN ECONOMIES
dc.subjectOPTIMIZATION
dc.subjectOUTPUT GAP
dc.subjectPARTICULAR COUNTRY
dc.subjectPENSION
dc.subjectPENSION FUNDS
dc.subjectPERSONAL INCOME
dc.subjectPOLICY RESPONSE
dc.subjectPOLICY RESPONSES
dc.subjectPOSITIVE EFFECTS
dc.subjectPOTENTIAL OUTPUT
dc.subjectPRICE CHANGES
dc.subjectPRIVATE INVESTMENT
dc.subjectPRODUCTION FUNCTION
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
dc.subjectPROTECTIONISM
dc.subjectPUBLIC POLICY
dc.subjectPUBLIC SPENDING
dc.subjectRAPID GROWTH
dc.subjectRATE OF RETURN
dc.subjectRATE OF RETURN TO CAPITAL
dc.subjectRATES OF INTEREST
dc.subjectRATES OF RETURN
dc.subjectREAL EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectREAL EXCHANGE RATES
dc.subjectREAL GDP
dc.subjectREAL INTEREST
dc.subjectREAL INTEREST RATE
dc.subjectREAL INTEREST RATES
dc.subjectRECESSION
dc.subjectREGULATORY OVERSIGHT
dc.subjectRESERVES
dc.subjectRISK PREMIUM
dc.subjectRISK PREMIUMS
dc.subjectRURAL INFRASTRUCTURE
dc.subjectSAVINGS
dc.subjectSEWAGE
dc.subjectSHORT TERM INTEREST RATES
dc.subjectSMALL INVESTORS
dc.subjectSOFT LOANS
dc.subjectSTOCK MARKET
dc.subjectSTOCK MARKETS
dc.subjectSTOCKS
dc.subjectTAX
dc.subjectTAX BREAKS
dc.subjectTAX EXEMPTION
dc.subjectTAX RATES
dc.subjectTAX STRUCTURES
dc.subjectTELECOMMUNICATIONS
dc.subjectTRADE BALANCE
dc.subjectTRADE BALANCES
dc.subjectTRADE CREDIT
dc.subjectTRADE FINANCE
dc.subjectTRADE FLOWS
dc.subjectTRADE POLICY
dc.subjectTRADE PROTECTION
dc.subjectTRADES
dc.subjectTREASURIES
dc.subjectTREASURY
dc.subjectTREASURY BOND
dc.subjectTREASURY BOND YIELD
dc.subjectTRUSTEES
dc.subjectUNDERWRITERS
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectWAGE RIGIDITY
dc.subjectWEALTH
dc.subjectWEALTH EFFECTS
dc.subjectWORLD ECONOMIES
dc.subjectWORLD ECONOMY
dc.subjectWORLD FINANCIAL MARKETS
dc.subjectWORLD TRADE
dc.subjectWTO
dc.titleThe Potential Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on World Trade

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