Pakistan. Review of the wheat sector and grain storage issues
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Wheat is of paramount importance in Pakistan, with 80 percent of farmers growing it on a total of about 9 million hectares (ha) (close to 40 percent of the country’s total cultivated land). This crop alone contributed about 14 percent of value added in agriculture and 3 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2009. In recent years, Pakistan’s wheat production has been about 22 to 26 million tonnes per year. The crop is grown by predominantly small (0.5 to 5.0 ha) a nd medium-sized (5 to 10 ha) farmers, whose livelihoods depend on it. Wheat yields in Pakistan remain low, lagging behind those in other countries with comparable agroclimatic conditions. The agro-ecological potential for irrigated wheat in Punjab, Pakistan’s primary production area, suggests that yields of about 6 tonnes/ha could be attained, compared with current yields of 2.5 to 3 tonnes/ha. Assuming that this potential wheat yield is realized through sustainably intensified c rop production, Pakistan could increase annual wheat production to 32.5 to 38 million tonnes from the area currently planted. However, any policies and support programmes aimed at increasing wheat productivity must take into account existing constraints in the wheat supply chain, especially the lack of storage facilities. Wheat currently contributes 37 percent of total food energy intake in Pakistan. As incomes increase and a stronger middle class emerges, consumers will likely s hift towards more dairy, meat and other higher-value food products in their diet. While per capita wheat consumption may decline in the future, reflecting increasing consumer incomes and changing food preferences, overall wheat supply will need to increase to about 23 to 24 million tonnes by 2017 – about 12 percent higher than the 2010/11 level – to meet estimated food demand from the country’s growing population.