Modelling the Economics of the Reference Levels for Forest Management Emissions in the EU
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In the recent climate change conferences of UNFCCC new accounting rules have been
suggested for forestry sector to provide incentives for forest management and emission
mitigation actions. There has also been pressure to modify accounting rules to avoid giving
credits for sequestration which would occur naturally. Country-specific reference levels for
Annex I countries have been suggested to be used as baseline for carbon sequestration target of
forest sector. Each country has proposed a reference level based on baseline harvest and growth
of forest, accounting for the effect of policies implemented before 2009. A country will gain
carbon credits if emissions from forest management are below the baseline reference level,
while a country whose emissions exceed the baseline reference level will lose carbon credits.
Gains and debits are limited with caps which are proportional of the national carbon emissions
in the year 1990. With an economic model we study how the setting of reference levels will
affect to the forest sector, harvesting volumes, carbon reservoirs in harvested wood products and
price of wood. Also the effects of setting caps for gains and debits as a function of the carbon
dioxide emission allowance (EUA) are studied. We also investigate analytically the proposed
reference levels and study how to proceed into ‘more correct’ baseline reference levels.