Pre-harvest Forecasting of County Wheat Yield and Wheat Quality Conditional on Weather Information
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Wheat regression models that account for the effect of weather are developed to forecast wheat
yield and quality. Spatial lag effects are included. Wheat yield, protein, and test weight level are
strongly influenced by weather variables. The forecasting power of the yield and protein models
was enhanced by adding the spatial lag effect. Out of sample forecasting tests confirm the
models’ usefulness in accounting for the variations in average wheat yield and qualities.