Price regime changes in the rice value chain in the State of São Paulo, Brazil.
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The study?s objective was to analyze the dynamics driven by the price of rice to the producer and wholesale on the retail in São Paulo state, Brazil. Regime changes were induced by transitions between Markov regimes, mainly arising from the Covid-19 pandemic. The nominal prices of processed rice (R$/kg) from the three levels of producer, wholesale and retail markets from 02/2019 to 07/2022 were used to estimate the ?Markovian? dynamic regression. Among the main results, there is a high probability of switching from Regime 1 to Regime 2. Regime 1 is characterized by the highs between 11/2019 and 05/2021. Retail price permanence in both regimes was eight months for Regime 1 and 12 months for Regime 2. Therefore, this result shows the effects were temporary (Covid-19) on retail prices in subsequent periods.
SOBER 2023.
SOBER 2023.
Palabras clave
Covid-19, Markov, Cadeia Produtiva, Arroz, Preço