Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Projects
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Washington, DC
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This paper identifies key challenges and
solutions for carrying out project-level economic analysis
of adaptation to climate change, both stand-alone and
integrated into broader development projects. Very few
projects addressing adaptation thus far have been subject to
in-depth and rigorous economic analysis for a variety of
reasons, including a lack of guidance on how to deal with
assessments of the impacts of climate change, as well as
with estimating costs and benefits of adaptation under
uncertainty. The paper focus is on the agricultural sector,
where the impacts of climate change have the potential to
disrupt the livelihoods of rural populations in many regions
and where adaptation must be given urgent consideration.
Nevertheless, some of the approaches discussed are suitable
to projects in other sectors as well. Finally, robust
decision making (RDM) can provide an alternative
quantitative decision analytic method that avoids subjective
probability assessments and scenario predictions. RDM
creates hundreds or thousands of plausible futures, in the
judgment of the analyst, that are then used to
systematically evaluate the performance of alternative
actions. This approach facilitates identifying the set of
conditions under which any particular alternative adaptation
performs well or poorly, according to various evaluation
criteria based on the decision maker's judgment. The
decision maker can identify 'robust' alternatives
that, compared to other alternatives, perform reasonably
well across a wide range of plausible futures.
Palabras clave
ABSENCE OF INSURANCE, ADAPTATION COMPONENTS, ADAPTATION COST, ADAPTATION COSTS, ADAPTATION DECISIONS, ADAPTATION DEFICIT, ADAPTATION FINANCING, ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURE, ADAPTATION INVESTMENTS, ADAPTATION NEEDS, ADAPTATION OPTIONS, ADAPTATION PROJECT, ADAPTATION PROJECTS, ADAPTATION RESPONSES, ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE, ADAPTATIONS, ADAPTING, ADVERSE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, ALLOCATION, ANALYSIS OF ADAPTATION, ANNUAL PRECIPITATION, ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE, ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE, ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, ASSET VALUE, ATMOSPHERE, ATMOSPHERIC COMPONENTS, AUTONOMOUS ADAPTATION, BENEFITS, BIOPHYSICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, CAPACITY, CARBON DIOXIDE, CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION, CARBON FERTILIZATION, CL, CLIMATE, CLIMATE ADAPTATION, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION, CLIMATE CHANGE DAMAGES, CLIMATE CHANGE DATA, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS, CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS, CLIMATE CHANGE TEAM, CLIMATE CHANGES, CLIMATE CONDITIONS, CLIMATE DATA, CLIMATE EXTREMES, CLIMATE FORECASTS, CLIMATE IMPACTS, CLIMATE PATTERNS, CLIMATE PROJECTIONS, CLIMATE REGIME, CLIMATE RISKS, CLIMATE SCENARIOS, CLIMATE SYSTEM, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, CLIMATE VARIABLE, CLIMATE VARIABLES, CLIMATE-CHANGE, CLIMATE-RELATED HAZARDS, CLIMATES, CLIMATIC CHANGES, CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS, CLIMATIC CONDITIONS, CLIMATIC DIFFERENCES, CLIMATIC EVENTS, CLIMATIC EXTREMES, CLIMATIC IMPACTS, CLIMATIC RISKS, CLIMATIC VARIABLES, CO, COLORS, CONSEQUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE, COST-BENEFIT, COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS, DAILY TEMPERATURE, DAMAGES, DAP, DEMAND, DIFFUSION, DISCOUNT RATE, DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS, DROUGHT, ECOLOGICAL ZONES, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC ANALYSES, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, ECONOMIC BENEFITS, ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC IMPACT, ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE, ECONOMIC IMPACTS, ECONOMIC MODEL, ECONOMIC MODELS, ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE, ECONOMICS OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE, ECOSYSTEM, EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE, EMISSION, EMISSION SCENARIOS, EMISSIONS, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS, ENERGY, ENERGY PRICES, EVAPORATION, EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, EXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS, EXTREME EVENTS, FERTILIZERS, FINANCE, FINANCIAL ANALYSIS, FINANCIAL IMPACTS, FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS, FINANCIAL SERVICES, FLOOD, FLOODS, FREQUENCY OF CLIMATE EXTREMES, FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE, FUTURE CLIMATE VARIABILITY, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL, GHG, GLACIERS, GLOBAL CLIMATE, GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM, GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT FACILITY, GREENHOUSE, GREENHOUSE GAS, GROWTH IN DEMAND, HUMIDITY, HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS, HYDROLOGICAL MODEL, HYDROLOGY, IMPACT OF CLIMATE, IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE, IMPACTS FROM CLIMATE CHANGE, IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, INCENTIVES, INCOME, INTENSE RAINFALL, INVESTMENT BEHAVIOR, INVESTMENTS, IPCC, LAND DEGRADATION, LEAD, LESS, LOCAL CLIMATE, LOCAL CLIMATE CONDITIONS, LONG-TERM DISCOUNTING, LOW-CARBON, LOWER DISCOUNT RATE, MALADAPTATION, MARKET, MARKETS, METEOROLOGY, MODELS, MONETARY COSTS, MONETARY TERMS, MONETARY VALUE, NEGATIVE IMPACTS, NO, OFFSETS, PLANT GROWTH, POLICIES, POLICY, PRECIPITATION, PRESENT VALUE, PRICE, PRICES, PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION, PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS, RAINFALL, RAINFALL EVENTS, RAINFALL VARIABILITY, REGIONAL CLIMATE, REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL, RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE, RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE, REVENUES, RISK MANAGEMENT, SCENARIOS, SEA LEVEL RISE, SEASON, SEASONAL CLIMATE, SOLAR RADIATION, SUPPLY, SURFACE RUNOFF, SURFACE WATER, TEMPERATURE, TEMPERATURE INCREASES, TEMPERATURE RISE, TEMPERATURES, THREATS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, UNCERTAINTIES, VARIABILITY DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE, VARIABILITY OF CLIMATE, VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE, VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE RISKS