The Impact on Russia of WTO Accession and The Doha Agenda : The Importance of Liberalization of Barriers against Foreign Direct Investment in Services for Growth and Poverty Reduction
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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Taking price changes from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model of world trade, the authors use a small open economy computable general equilibrium comparative static model of the Russian economy to assess the impact of global free trade and a successful completion of the Doha Agenda on the Russian economy, and especially on the poor. They compare those results with the impact of Russian accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on income distribution and the poor. The model incorporates all 55,000 households from the Russian Household Budget Survey as "real" households. Crucially, given the importance of foreign direct investment (FDI) liberalization as part of Russian WTO accession, the authors also include FDI and Dixit-Stiglitz endogenous productivity effects from liberalization of import barriers against goods and FDI in services. The authors estimate that Russian WTO accession in the medium run will result in gains averaged over all Russian households equal to 7.3 percent of Russian consumption (with a standard deviation of 2.2 percent of consumption), with virtually all households gaining. They find that global free trade would result in a weighted average gain to households in Russia of 0.2 percent of consumption, with a standard deviation of 0.2 percent of consumption, while a successful completion of the Doha Development Agenda would result in a weighted average gain to households of -0.3 percent of consumption (with a standard deviation of 0.2 percent of consumption). Russia, as a net food importer, loses from subsidy elimination, and the gains to Russia from tariff cuts in other countries are too small to offset these losses. The results strongly support the view that Russia's own liberalization is more important than improvements in market access as a result of reforms in tariffs or subsidies in the rest of the world. Foremost among the own reforms is liberalization of barriers against FDI in business services.
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ACCESSION AGREEMENT, ACCESSION COMMITMENTS, ACCESSION NEGOTIATIONS, ACCESSION TO THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION, AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS, AGRICULTURAL SUPPORT, AGRICULTURE, ANTIDUMPING, ANTIDUMPING ACTIONS, AVERAGE COSTS, BASE YEAR, BENCHMARK, BILATERAL AGREEMENT, BILATERAL AGREEMENTS, BUSINESS SERVICES, CAPITAL INCREASE, CAPITAL STOCK, COMMODITIES, CONSTANT MARGINAL COSTS, CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE, CONSUMERS, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, CONSUMPTION GOODS, CONTRACT ENFORCEMENT, COUNTRY OF ORIGIN, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS, DEMAND CURVE, DEVELOPMENT AGENDA, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DIVIDENDS, DOHA DEVELOPMENT AGENDA, DOMESTIC FIRMS, DOMESTIC SUPPORT, ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, ECONOMIC POLICIES, ECONOMIC THEORY, ECONOMICS LITERATURE, ELASTICITY, ELIMINATION OF TARIFFS, EQUILIBRIUM, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT MARKETS, EXPORT PRICE, EXPORT SUBSIDIES, EXPORT SUBSIDY, EXPORT TAX, EXPORTS, EXTERNALITIES, EXTERNALITY, FACTOR ENDOWMENTS, FACTOR SHARES, FOOD INDUSTRY, FOREIGN BANKS, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN FIRMS, FOREIGN GOODS, FOREIGN INVESTORS, FREE TRADE, FREE TRADE IN GOODS, GDP, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELING, GLOBAL FREE TRADE, GLOBAL TRADE, GLOBAL TRADE ANALYSIS, GROWTH RATE, IMPACT OF TRADE, IMPACT OF TRADE LIBERALIZATION, IMPORT BARRIERS, IMPORT PRICES, IMPROVED MARKET ACCESS, INCOME, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCREASED COMPETITION, INCREASING RETURNS, INCREASING RETURNS TO SCALE, INDIVIDUAL HOUSEHOLDS, INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES, INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY, INTERMEDIATE GOODS, INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, JOINT VENTURES, LIBERALIZATION OF TRADE, MANUFACTURING SECTORS, MARGINAL COST, MARKET ACCESS, MONOPOLISTIC COMPETITION, MONOPOLY RENTS, MULTINATIONAL FIRMS, OPENNESS, OPTIMIZATION, PER CAPITA INCOME, POLICY CHANGES, POLICY IMPLICATIONS, POOR COUNTRIES, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRICE INDEX, PRIMARY FACTORS, PRIMARY FACTORS OF PRODUCTION, PROCESS OF ADJUSTMENT, PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION, PRODUCTIVITY, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PROFITABILITY, REDUCTION OF BARRIERS, REGULATORY BARRIERS, RETURN ON CAPITAL, RURAL HOUSEHOLDS, SAFETY NETS, SERVICE SECTOR, SERVICE SECTORS, SERVICES LIBERALIZATION, SERVICES SECTOR, SERVICES SECTORS, TARIFF BARRIERS, TARIFF CUTS, TARIFF RATES, TARIFF REDUCTION, TARIFF REDUCTIONS, TAX RATES, TELECOMMUNICATIONS, TERMS OF TRADE, TERMS OF TRADE EFFECTS, TERMS OF TRADE LOSS, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, TRADE IN SERVICES, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, TRADE POLICY, TRADE REFORMS, TRANSITION PERIOD, TRANSPORTATION SERVICES, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNSKILLED LABOR, URBAN HOUSEHOLDS, URBAN WORKERS, URUGUAY ROUND, UTILITY FUNCTION, UTILITY FUNCTIONS, WAGE RATE, WAGES, WELFARE GAINS, WELFARE IMPACTS, WORLD MARKETS, WORLD PRICES, WORLD TRADE, WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION, WTO, WTO ACCESSION, WTO MEMBERS, WTO MEMBERSHIP