Synthesis of the Impacts of Covid-19 on India’s Labor Market
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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This paper examines the impact of
Covid-19 on a host of labor market outcomes in India, using
a continuous household survey. Cross-sectional trends of
headline indicators like unemployment and labor force
participation indicate a quick recovery after the
unprecedented shock of the pandemic. However, women,
marginalized social groups, and youth were more adversely
affected, largely due to the nature of their employment
before the pandemic. Next, a fixed-cohort analysis with a
difference-in-differences regression framework is used to
follow the labor market trajectories of a Covid-affected
cohort and a pre-Covid cohort for comparison, over a span of
12-16 months. A story of downward transitions emerges, with
movements out of the labor force, into more informal and
lower-paid types of work in agriculture and rural areas.
Higher education and being located in dense, urban areas
partially mediated the adverse shocks of Covid-19. Lastly,
India’s extensive vaccination campaign had significant
positive impacts on employment recovery.
Palabras clave
COVID-19 PANDEMIC IMPACT, LABOR MARKET, EMPLOYMENT OF MARGINALIZED SOCIAL GROUPS, POST-PANDEMIC EMPLOYMENT RECOVERY, INFORMAL JOBS, GENDER AND RURAL LABOR