Kazakhstan Economic Update, Winter 2024-2025
No hay miniatura disponible
Fecha
Autores
Título de la revista
ISSN de la revista
Título del volumen
Editor
Washington, DC: World Bank
Resumen
Descripción
Kazakhstan's economy is
estimated to have grown by 4.0 percent in 2024. A temporary
acceleration to 4.5–5.0 percent growth is projected in 2025,
supported by a one-off surge in oil production, export
growth, and continued fiscal stimulus. Growth is expected to
moderate post-2025 due to persistently low productivity and
declining investment, highlighting the need for
diversification and new growth levers. Inflation is easing
but remains above target, projected at 7.5–8 percent in 2025
and 6 percent in 2026. Fiscal policy remains expansionary,
with the deficit expected to remain at 3.1 percent of GDP in
2025 before narrowing to 2.7 percent in 2026. While public
debt remains manageable, rising domestic borrowing costs and
reliance on the National Oil Fund for fiscal support pose
sustainability challenges. The report identifies key
downside risks, including declining global oil demand,
prolonged budgetary expansion, and the impacts of extreme
weather events on agriculture and infrastructure. The
special topic section of the report discusses revenue
mobilization reforms. Kazakhstan’s tax revenues lag
significantly behind its peers, limiting the funding of
essential services and long-term growth opportunities. The
report outlines a comprehensive tax reform agenda to address
fiscal challenges. Proposed reforms include transitioning to
a progressive income tax system, phasing out inefficient tax
incentives, improving VAT compliance, aligning excise taxes
with environmental goals, and enhancing tax administration.
Palabras clave
ECONOMIC GROWTH, INFLATION, FISCAL POLICY, TAX REFORM