Looming El Niño: What to Expect, How to Manage
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International Rice Research Institute
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"Highlights
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimated an 82 percent probability of El Niño for May–July 2026, rising to 96 percent through December 2026–February 20271 , while the International Research Institute for Climate and Society placed the probability at 97–98 percent through early 20272 .
• Occurrence of El Niño does not automatically mean a physical rice shortage. Global rice prices remain below their 2024 highs, and large stocks, especially in India, still buffer the market. However, the risks have shifted from surplus-clearing toward a compound stress situation: With El Niño-driven heat and rainfall disruption threatening production, while higher fertilizer and fuel costs are weakening farm gate margins and rising distribution costs are contributing to growing domestic retail prices with negative impacts on consumers.
• For rice economies, the critical policy questions are whether farmers will have adequate access to fertilizers, whether they can absorb elevated fertilizer and fuel costs, and whether sufficient water will be available during the growing season that now coincides with a rapidly strengthening El Niño signal.
• The current period should be treated as a resilience-building window. If governments wait until production losses are visible, policy responses are more likely to become expensive, blunt, and trade-distorting."
Palabras clave
El Niño, rice, climate change adaptation, price volatility, food security, irrigation water, farm inputs, agricultural production, agricultural prices, risk management, drought