Climate change, urbanization, and optimal long-term floodplain protection

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dc.creatorZhu, Tingju
dc.creatorLund, Jay R.
dc.creatorJenkins, Marion W.
dc.creatorMarques, G. F.
dc.creatorRitzema, Randall S.
dc.date2007-06
dc.date2025-01-29T12:58:47Z
dc.date2025-01-29T12:58:47Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:46:31Z
dc.descriptionThis paper examines levee-protected floodplains and economic aspects of adaptation to increasing long-term flood risk due to urbanization and climate change. The lower American River floodplain in the Sacramento, California, metropolitan area is used as an illustration to explore the course of optimal floodplain protection decisions over long periods. A dynamic programming model is developed and suggests economically desirable adaptations for floodplain levee systems given simultaneous changes in flood climate and urban land values. Economic engineering optimization analyses of several climate change and urbanization scenarios are made. Sensitivity analyses consider assumptions about future values of floodplain land and damageable property along with the discount rate. Methodological insights and policy lessons are drawn from modeling results, reflecting the joint effects and relationships that climate, economic costs, and regional economic growth can have on floodplain levee planning decisions.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/171812
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/114254
dc.languageen
dc.publisherAmerican Geophysical Union
dc.rightsLimited Access
dc.sourceZhu, Tingju; Lund, Jay R.; Jenkins, Marion W.; Marques, G. F.; Ritzema, Randall S. 2007. Climate change, urbanization, and optimal long-term floodplain protection. Water Resources Research 43 (6): W06421. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004WR003516
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjecturbanization
dc.subjectdynamic programming
dc.subjectembankments
dc.subjectflooding
dc.titleClimate change, urbanization, and optimal long-term floodplain protection
dc.typeJournal Article

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)