Climate Shocks and Their Effects on Food Security, Prices, and Agricultural Wages in Afghanistan
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Washington, DC: World Bank
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This study examines the effects of
climate and weather shocks on Afghanistan's
agricultural economy, with an emphasis on food security,
prices, and wages. By utilizing a dynamical model and a
unique data set that includes monthly global and local food
prices, agricultural wages, unofficial exchange rates, and
local climate data, the research provides econometric
estimates of the impacts of droughts and floods. The
findings reveal that both flooding and drought significantly
increase food insecurity, directly and indirectly. Directly,
these climatic shocks are linked to heightened risks of food
insecurity in the following months, even when controlling
for price and wage fluctuations. Indirectly, droughts and
floods drive up food prices and depress agricultural wages,
further exacerbating food insecurity. The study suggests
that enhancing climate resilience in the agriculture sector
could mitigate these risks, stabilize local food prices and
wages, and strengthen food security and the broader
agricultural economy. The results also show that price data
effectively capture food security shocks from various
non-economic sources, and can serve as a versatile
monitoring tool in situations where detailed data on food
security are unavailable.
Palabras clave
FOOD SECURITY, CRISIS, CLIMATE SHOCKS, AGRICULTURE, FOOD PRICES