Municipal Vulnerability to Climate Change and Climate-Related Events in Mexico

Borja-Vega, Christian; de la Fuente, Alejandro

Municipal Vulnerability to Climate Change and Climate-Related Events in Mexico

Autores

Borja-Vega, Christian

de la Fuente, Alejandro

Editor

World Bank, Washington, DC

Descripción

A climate change vulnerability index in agriculture is presented at the municipal level in Mexico. Because the index is built with a multidimensional approach to vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity), it represents a tool for policy makers, academics and government alike to inform decisions about climate change resilience and regional variations within the country. The index entails baseline (2005) and prediction (2045) levels based on historic climate data and future-climate modeling. The results of the analysis suggest a wide variation in municipal vulnerability across the country at baseline and prediction points. The vulnerability index shows that highly vulnerable municipalities demonstrate higher climate extremes, which increases uncertainty for harvest periods, and for agricultural yields and outputs. The index shows at baseline that coastal areas host some of the most vulnerable municipalities to climate change in Mexico. However, it also shows that the Northwest and Central regions will likely experience the largest shifts in vulnerability between 2005 and 2045. Finally, vulnerability is found to vary according to specific variables: municipalities with higher vulnerability have more adverse socio-demographic conditions. With the vast municipal data available in Mexico, further sub-index estimations can lead to answers for specific policy and research questions.

Palabras clave

ACCESS TO HEALTH CARE, ACCESS TO HEALTH SERVICES, AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, ALLOCATION, ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS, ATMOSPHERE, ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN GENERAL CIRCULATION, ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL, ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE, AVERAGE ANNUAL RAINFALL, AVERAGE RAINFALL, BIODIVERSITY, CARBON, CARBON EMISSIONS, CENSUSES, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE, CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS, CLIMATE CHANGE SIMULATIONS, CLIMATE CHANGE STUDIES, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY, CLIMATE CHANGES, CLIMATE EVENT, CLIMATE EXPOSURE, CLIMATE EXTREMES, CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS, CLIMATE INDICATORS, CLIMATE MODELING, CLIMATE MODELS, CLIMATE POLICY, CLIMATE PREDICTIONS, CLIMATE RESEARCH, CLIMATE RISK, CLIMATE RISKS, CLIMATE SCENARIO, CLIMATE SCENARIOS, CLIMATE SCIENCE, CLIMATE SENSITIVE, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, CLIMATE VARIABLES, CLIMATE VULNERABILITY, CLIMATE-RELATED EVENTS, CLIMATES, CLIMATIC DISASTERS, CLIMATIC EVENTS, CLIMATIC HAZARDS, CLIMATIC SCENARIOS, CLIMATIC STIMULI, CLIMATIC VARIABILITY, CLIMATOLOGY, CO, CO2, COLORS, CYCLONES, DEGREE DAYS, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DISASTER COMPENSATION, DROUGHT, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, ECONOMIC DATA, ECONOMIC IMPACTS, ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE, ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, EL NINO, ELDERLY, ELDERLY POPULATION, ELECTRICITY, EMISSION, EMISSION LEVELS, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS, ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES, EXTREME EVENTS, EXTREME RAINFALL, EXTREME RAINFALL EVENTS, EXTREME WEATHER, EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS, FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS, FINANCIAL LOSSES, FINANCIAL MECHANISMS, FINANCIAL PRODUCTS, FLOODS, FOOD INSECURITY, FOREST, FOREST COVER, FORESTRY, FROST, GAS, GCM, GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL, GLOBAL CLIMATE, GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL, GREENHOUSE, GREENHOUSE GASES, HEALTH CARE SERVICES, HISTORIC CLIMATE DATA, HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS, HUMAN ACTIVITY, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, HUMAN WELFARE, HURRICANE, HURRICANES, HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE, IMPACT OF CLIMATE, IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE, IMPACTS FROM CLIMATE CHANGE, INCOME, INDIGENOUS POPULATIONS, INFANT, INFANT MORTALITY, INFANT MORTALITY RATE, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY, IPCC, LABOR FORCE, LIVING CONDITIONS, LOCAL GOVERNMENTS, LONG-TERM CLIMATE CHANGE, LOSS OF FOREST, LOW EMISSIONS SCENARIO, METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH, METEOROLOGICAL STATIONS, METHANE, MIGRATION, MIGRATION FLOW, NATIONAL COUNCIL, NATIONAL LEVEL, NATIONAL POPULATION, NATIONAL POPULATION COUNCIL, NATURAL DISASTERS, NATURAL RESOURCE, NITROUS OXIDE, NUMBER OF CHILDREN, NUMBER OF WOMEN, NUTRITIONAL STATUS, PET, POLICY DISCUSSIONS, POLICY MAKERS, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POLLUTION, POPULATION DATA, POPULATION DENSITY, POPULATION ESTIMATES, POPULATION GROUPS, POPULATION GROWTH, POPULATION GROWTH RATE, PP, PRECIPITATION, PRIMARY EDUCATION, PROGRESS, PUBLIC HEALTH, RAIN, RAINFALL, RAINFALL PATTERNS, REGIONAL POLICIES, REMITTANCES, RESOURCE CONSTRAINTS, RESPECT, RISK MANAGEMENT, RURAL AREAS, RURAL COMMUNITIES, RURAL DEVELOPMENT, RURAL PRODUCERS, SEA-LEVEL, SEA-LEVEL RISE, SEASONAL PRECIPITATION, SMALLHOLDERS, SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, SOCIAL DIMENSIONS, SOCIAL DIMENSIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, SOCIAL SCIENCE, SOCIAL SECURITY, SOCIAL VULNERABILITY, SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS, SOIL EROSION, SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION, STORM SURGES, SUBSISTENCE FARMERS, SULFUR, SULFUR DIOXIDE, SURFACE PRESSURE, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE, TEMPERATURE, TEMPERATURE CHANGES, TEMPERATURE DATA, TEMPERATURE EFFECTS, TEMPERATURE INCREASES, TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY, TEMPERATURES, THUNDERSTORM, TROPICS, TROPOSPHERE, VULNERABILITY FROM CLIMATE CHANGE, VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE, VULNERABLE GROUPS, VULNERABLE POPULATIONS, WATER CYCLE, WATER RESOURCES, WIND