Rising Tempers, Rising Temperatures
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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Section one of the papers provides a
brief overview of the relationship between the Sahel region
of Africa and climate variability trends and predictions,
ultimately posing the primary research question of the
study: Is the Sahel region more likely to have a higher
probability of conflict and migration as a result of climate
change and climate change-related events? In section two,
research and analysis aim to identify causal paths between
climate change, migration, and conflict via structural
equation modeling focusing on recent climate change trends
in the Africa and Sahel regions, particularly changes in
temperature and rainfall, and analyzing the consequences of
this climate variabil¬ity, namely migration and conflict.
Section three brings the aspect of youth into the analysis,
arguing that youth living in the rural Sahel region will
likely find themselves particularly vulnerable to in¬creased
climate change and variability, which will have direct and
indirect implications on the security and livelihoods of
these individuals. The paper explores the past, current and
predicted issues faced by rural Sahel youth affected by the
impacts of climate change, such as chronic unemployment and
engagement in the illicit sector due to rural to urban
migration from regions affected by drought, desertification
and resource scarcity. The final section of the paper offers
policy recommen¬dations for addressing negative
climate-change related consequences through two key paths of
intervention: (i) climate change adaptation measures and
(ii) conflict and crime prevention measures.
Palabras clave
ACCESS TO EMPLOYMENT, IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, JOBS, CIVIL CONFLICT, FINANCIAL SERVICES, ECONOMIC GROWTH, LOCAL CAPACITY, TEMPERATURE, ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION, REGIONAL STRATEGY, LIVESTOCK SYSTEMS, MIGRATION POLICY, INCOME, RAINFALL PATTERNS, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, TERRORIST, EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLICATIONS, LOCAL GOVERNMENTS, CLIMATE CHANGE CONSEQUENCES, GOOD GOVERNANCE, LIFE SKILLS, NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, SURFACE WATER, LEGAL STATUS, GOVERNMENT CAPACITY, EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, TECHNICAL SKILLS, MODELS, PUBLICATIONS, CLIMATE-RELATED DISASTER, CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE, SOCIAL PROGRAMS, VULNERABILITY, SCARCITIES, EXTREME WEATHER, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION MEASURES, INEQUITIES, KNOWLEDGE, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, ARMED CONFLICT, LABOR MARKET, URBAN MIGRATION, HUMAN SECURITY, DISEASES, PER CAPITA INCOME, TROPICS, TRAINING, DRUG TRAFFICKING, FORCED MIGRATION, IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, POPULATION GROWTH, REGIONAL CLIMATE, FLOODS, CAPACITY, AVERAGE RAINFALL, DEMOCRACY, MIGRATION, NATURAL DISASTERS, RAINFALL, NUMBER OF MIGRANTS, LAND DEGRADATION, DISASTERS, POPULATION MIGRATION, SEASONAL RAINFALL, ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, MIGRANTS, NATURAL RESOURCES, PRECIPITATION, UNEP, HOUSEHOLD ASSETS, FINANCE, IMPACT OF CLIMATE, CLIMATE TRENDS, PROGRESS, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, MIGRATION FLOWS, UNEMPLOYMENT, FOOD SECURITY, CLIMATE-CHANGE, POLICIES, ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE, IPCC, SCIENCE, DROUGHT, IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE, EXTREME EVENTS, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, RAPID POPULATION GROWTH, URBAN CENTERS, CLIMATE, CLIMATE RELATED DISASTERS, WORKSHOP, PUSH FACTOR, POPULATION DENSITY, URBAN AREAS, CLIMATE RISK, COLORS, SOCIAL DIMENSIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE, SOCIAL DIMENSIONS, INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY, CLIMATE CHANGES, POPULATIONS, MARKET, SECURITY THREAT, MALARIA, WEATHER PATTERNS, POLICY, LIFESTYLES, CENTURY TEMPERATURES, RISK FACTORS, EVOLUTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE, MINORITY, CLIMATIC CHANGE, DESERTIFICATION, WARS, LOCAL COMMUNITIES, WAR, CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT, ASYLUM, AMOUNT OF RAINFALL, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION, RURAL AREAS, INDIGENOUS PEOPLES, TEMPERATURES, YOUNG PEOPLE, RAIN, POPULATION, MEAN TEMPERATURE, CIVIL WAR, SCARCE RESOURCES, EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS, POPULATION DATA, RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE, HUMAN SETTLEMENTS, PREVENTION STRATEGIES, POPULATION INCREASES, PEACE, POLITICAL INSTABILITY, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, CLIMATE IMPLICATIONS, NEGATIVE IMPACTS, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT