Robust Decision-Making in the Water Sector

Kalra, Nidhi Rajiv; Groves, David G.; Bonzanigo, Laura; Molina Perez, Edmundo; Ramos, Cayo; Carter, Brandon; Rodriguez Cabanillas, Iván

Robust Decision-Making in the Water Sector

Autores

Kalra, Nidhi Rajiv

Groves, David G.

Bonzanigo, Laura

Molina Perez, Edmundo

Ramos, Cayo

Carter, Brandon

Rodriguez Cabanillas, Iván

Editor

World Bank, Washington, DC

Descripción

How can water resource agencies make smart investments to ensure long-term water reliability when the future is fraught with deep climate and economic uncertainty? This study helped SEDAPAL, the water utility serving Lima, Peru, answer this question by drawing on state of the art methods for decision making under deep uncertainty. These methods provide techniques for evaluating the performance of a water system over a wide range of plausible futures and then developing strategies that are robust across these futures. Rather than weighting futures probabilistically to define an optimal strategy, these methodologies identify the vulnerabilities of a system and then evaluate the key trade-offs among different adaptive strategies. Through extensive iteration and collaboration with SEDAPAL, the study used these methods to define an investment strategy that is robust, ensuring water reliability across as wide a range of future conditions as possible while also being economically efficient. First,on completion, the study helped SEDAPAL realize that not all projects included in the Master Plan were necessary to achieve water reliability, and the utility could save 25 percent (more than $600 million) in investment costs. Second, the study helped focus future efforts on demand-side management, pricing, and soft infrastructure, a refocusing that is difficult to achieve in traditional utility companies. Third, the study helped SEDAPAL gain the support of regulatory and budget agencies through the careful analysis of alternatives. Fourth, the study allowed the utility to postpone lower priority investments, and to analyze future options based on climate and demand information that simply is not available now.

Palabras clave

SANITATION, WATER QUALITY, SUPPLY OF WATER, WATER MANAGEMENT SYSTEM, WATER SUPPLIES, FLOW, SOURCES OF WATER, WATER DISTRICT, DAMS, WATER SECTOR, INDUSTRY, WATER UTILITY, WATER SYSTEMS, HYDROLOGY, PROGRAMS, WATER SUPPLY, RIVER BASINS, WATER RESOURCE, DECISION MAKERS, RESERVOIRS, AVAILABILITY OF WATER, TREATMENT PLANTS, WATER SHORTAGES, GROUNDWATER SOURCES, FLOOD MANAGEMENT, DEMAND MANAGEMENT POLICIES, STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT, WATER CONSUMPTION, RECYCLED WATER, WATER RESOURCES, WATER MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES, WATER SYSTEM, WATER STORAGE, MUNICIPAL AUTHORITIES, WATER MANAGEMENT, FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT, WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, POPULATION GROWTH, WATER TREATMENT, INDUSTRIAL WATER, BASINS, WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL, CONSTRUCTION, WATER MANAGEMENT AGENCIES, WATER MANAGEMENT DECISION, WATER USE, WATER, WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT, SUSTAINABLE WATER, DOMESTIC USES, RAINFALL, DESALINATION, SCIENCES, POLLUTION, GLACIERS, HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS, CLIMATE WARMING, RESEARCH, GROUNDWATER BASINS, STREAMFLOW, SERVICE AREA, RUNOFF, MUNICIPAL WATER SUPPLY, WASTEWATER, STORAGE CAPACITY, WATER TRANSFER, ECOSYSTEM, WATERSHEDS, LEAD, CLIMATE CHANGE, DROUGHT, WATER USES, SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY, FRESHWATER, RIVER BASIN, DEMAND FOR WATER, UTILITIES, INDUSTRIAL WATER DEMAND, WATER DEMAND, SYSTEMS, CANALS, FLOOD RISK, WATER BANKING, DECISION MAKING, RIVERS, COMPETITION FOR WATER, FLOW CONDITIONS, WATER RESOURCES PLANNING, WASTE STREAMS, BROAD RANGE, WATER UTILITIES, WATER SOURCES, LAKES, WATER AGENCIES, WATER TREATMENT PLANT, WATER FLOWS, WATER NEEDS, IRRIGATION, STATISTICS, WATERSHED, GROUNDWATER, AGRICULTURAL RUNOFF, DELTAS, URBAN RUNOFF, WATER SUPPLY PROJECTS, FLOOD CONTROL, WATER POLLUTION, DEMAND MANAGEMENT, WATER INFRASTRUCTURE, INVESTMENT COSTS, COST SAVINGS, EVAPORATION, WATER LEVELS, MUNICIPAL WATER