Ethiopia’s Great Transition
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Washington, DC : World Bank
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Ethiopia’s rapid growth over the past
two decades has resulted in a surge in income per capita
levels, with the country approaching fast the middle-income
milestone. Over the past decade, fast growth was driven by
capital accumulation, but the extent to which this growth
has been equally distributed is unclear. Public
infrastructure spending accelerated dramatically in the
first half of the 2010s, helping underpin fast economic
growth. However, this approach seems to have had important
shortcomings. Contrary to the findings of World Bank (2015)
which examined an earlier period, total factor productivity
(TFP) declined during 2011-2020, contributing negatively to
growth. In addition, inequality at the household level
increased between 2011 and 2016. Finally, macroeconomic
imbalances have widened, a trend exacerbated by recent
shocks. This report discusses the drivers of growth in
Ethiopia and, in the absence of official subnational gross
domestic product (GDP) figures, examines whether there has
been convergence in economic activity at the subnational level.
Palabras clave
ECONOMIC GROWTH, LABOR MOBILITY, RURAL AREAS, URBAN AREAS, OFF-FARM, MIGRATION, MANUFACTURING, EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION, GLOBAL VALUE CHAIN, FOOD PRICES, NATURAL CAPITAL