Consequences of Civil Conflict
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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This paper reviews the literature on the
development consequences of internal armed conflict and
state fragility and analyzes the relationship using data
from World Development Indicators, Ukraine Corporate
Development Project UCDP/Peace Research Institute of Oslo
(PRIO) Armed Conflict Data (ACD), and World Bank state
fragility assessments. Our main focus is on a set of
development indicators that capture seven of the Millennium
Development Goals, but the author also look briefly into the
effect of conflict and fragility on growth, human rights
abuses, and democratization. The author analyze these
relationships using a variety of methods, averages by
conflict and fragility status; cross-sectional regression
analyses of change in each indicator over the time frame for
which we have data; fixed-effects regression analyses of the
impact on each indicator for each five-year period
1965-2009; as well as occasional panel time series models
and matching techniques. In section two, the author
summarizes the methodological choices and presents our
conflict data. Section three summarizes the results of our
analysis. Finally, section four analyzes the effects of
internal armed conflict on the attainment of the individual
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).
Palabras clave
ACCESS TO HEALTH CARE, ADEQUATE SANITATION FACILITIES, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, ARMED CONFLICT, ARMED CONFLICTS, ARMED FORCE, ARMED FORCES, BATTLE, BATTLES, BOMBARDMENT, CHILD MORTALITY, CIVIL CONFLICT, CIVIL CONFLICTS, CIVIL WAR, CIVIL WARS, COLLATERAL DAMAGE, COMBAT, CONFLICT COUNTRIES, CONFLICT COUNTRY, COST OF WAR, COUNTERFACTUAL, DEATHS, DEMOCRACY, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT GOALS, DIET, DISABILITY, DISCRIMINATION, DISEASES, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC INTEGRATION, ENERGY CONSUMPTION, ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT, ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY, EPIDEMIC, EPIDEMIOLOGICAL RESEARCH, ETHNIC FRACTIONALIZATION, FEMALE EDUCATION, FEMALE LIFE EXPECTANCY, FIGHTING, FOOD INSECURITY, FORCED MIGRATION, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGNERS, GENDER DIFFERENCES, GENDER EQUALITY, GENDER PARITY, GOOD GOVERNANCE, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GUERILLA, HEALTH CONSEQUENCES, HEALTH FACILITIES, HEALTH INFRASTRUCTURE, HEALTH SERVICES, HEALTH-CARE SYSTEM, HIV, HUMAN RIGHTS, HUMAN SECURITY, IMPACT OF CONFLICT, INCOME, INFANT, INFANT MORTALITY, INFANT MORTALITY RATES, INTERNAL CONFLICT, INTERNAL CONFLICTS, INTERNATIONAL COMMITTEE, INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, INTRASTATE CONFLICT, LARGE POPULATIONS, LIFE EXPECTANCY, LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES, MASS MOVEMENT, MATERNAL MORTALITY, MEASLES, MEDICAL PERSONNEL, MEETINGS, MILITARY ACTIVITY, MILITARY EXPENDITURE, MILITARY EXPENDITURES, MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS, MILLION PEOPLE, MINORITY, MORTALITY LEVELS, NATIONS, NEIGHBORING CIVIL WAR, NOURISHMENT, NUMBER OF CHILDREN, NUMBER OF PEOPLE, PEACE, PEACE RESEARCH, PEACEKEEPING, POOR, POPULATION GROUPS, POPULATION SIZE, POST-CONFLICT, POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES, POST-CONFLICT PERIOD, POVERTY ALLEVIATION, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRIMARY EDUCATION, PRIMARY SCHOOL, PRIMARY SCHOOL AGE, PUBLIC HEALTH, PUBLIC SPENDING, REFUGEE, REFUGEE CAMPS, REFUGEES, RESPECT, RISK FACTORS, RISK OF CONFLICT, RISK OF DEATH, RISK OF WAR, ROADS, RURAL POPULATIONS, SAFE WATER, SANITATION, SECONDARY EDUCATION, SECONDARY SCHOOL, SMALL COUNTRIES, SOCIAL SERVICES, SOLDIER, SOLDIERS, TRANSPORTATION, TRAP, TUBERCULOSIS, UNDERDEVELOPMENT, UNESCO, UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT FUND FOR WOMEN, UNITED NATIONS SECURITY COUNCIL, UNIVERSAL EDUCATION, VICTIMS, VIOLENCE, VIOLENT CONFLICT, VIOLENT CRIME, WAR, WARFARE, WARS, WEAPONS, WORLD DEVELOPMENT