A Comprehensive Review of Empirical and Modeled HIV Incidence Trends (1990-2012)

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dc.creatorTaaffe, Jessica
dc.creatorFraser-Hurt, Nicole
dc.creatorGorgens, Marelize
dc.creatorHarimurti, Pandu
dc.date2014-10-06T20:47:40Z
dc.date2014-10-06T20:47:40Z
dc.date2014-09
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T00:54:30Z
dc.descriptionAn accurate measurement of HIV incidence is a key for policy makers and HIV program managers directing national HIV response. However, there is no perfect method to measure or estimate the rate at which new HIV infections occur in a population. This review compiles and triangulates longitudinal HIV incidence and prevalence data from published studies and trials, national reports and surveys, and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS estimates from the Spectrum model, focusing on 20 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with generalized HIV epidemics. Three main points can be taken from this analysis of HIV incidence trends. First, modeled HIV incidence and nationally reported HIV prevalence levels in young females suggest that national HIV incidence has declined since 2000 in all except three countries analyzed (stable estimated HIV trends in Burkina Faso, Burundi, and Uganda), but trial and survey data suggest that in some demographics, HIV incidence remains critically high. Second, all modeled national HIV incidence curves and most empirically observed trends commenced a downward trajectory prior to the introduction of anti-retroviral therapy programs around 2004, suggesting the contribution of other factors, such as HIV prevention programs and natural epidemic dynamics, to this decline. Third, modeled HIV incidence estimates, including the incidence peaks in the past, exhibit much variation between Spectrum model versions and when new data are added, emphasizing the uncertainty of model outputs and the need to use incidence estimates with caution.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/09/20229050/comprehensive-review-empirical-modeled-hiv-incidence-trends-1990-2012-comprehensive-review-empirical-modeled-hiv-incidence-trends-1990-2012
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/20378
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-7042
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/412784
dc.languageEnglish
dc.languageen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank Group, Washington, DC
dc.relationPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 7042
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectACQUIRED IMMUNE DEFICIENCY SYNDROME
dc.subjectADULT POPULATION
dc.subjectAGE GROUPS
dc.subjectAGED
dc.subjectAIDS EPIDEMIC
dc.subjectAIDS IMPACT
dc.subjectAIDS PROGRAM
dc.subjectAIDS RELIEF
dc.subjectANTENATAL CLINIC
dc.subjectANTENATAL CLINICS
dc.subjectANTIBODIES
dc.subjectARVS
dc.subjectBOTH SEXES
dc.subjectCASES OF HIV
dc.subjectCHANGE IN POPULATION
dc.subjectCLINICAL TRIALS
dc.subjectCLINICS
dc.subjectCOMPLICATIONS
dc.subjectDEPARTMENT OF POPULATION
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT EFFORTS
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT POLICY
dc.subjectDISEASE
dc.subjectDISEASE CONTROL
dc.subjectDRUGS
dc.subjectEMERGENCY PLAN
dc.subjectENZYME IMMUNOASSAY
dc.subjectEPIDEMIC
dc.subjectEPIDEMICS
dc.subjectEPIDEMIOLOGICAL DATA
dc.subjectEPIDEMIOLOGY
dc.subjectFAMILY PLANNING
dc.subjectFEMALE
dc.subjectFEMALE SEX WORKERS
dc.subjectFEMALES
dc.subjectFERTILITY PATTERNS
dc.subjectGLOBAL AIDS EPIDEMIC
dc.subjectGLOBAL AIDS RESPONSE
dc.subjectGLOBAL HIV/AIDS
dc.subjectHEALTH POPULATION
dc.subjectHEALTH SURVEYS
dc.subjectHIGH-RISK GROUPS
dc.subjectHIV
dc.subjectHIV DATA
dc.subjectHIV EPIDEMICS
dc.subjectHIV INFECTION
dc.subjectHIV INFECTIONS
dc.subjectHIV POSITIVE
dc.subjectHIV PREVALENCE
dc.subjectHIV PREVENTION
dc.subjectHIV TRANSMISSION
dc.subjectHIV/AIDS
dc.subjectHUMAN DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectHUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS
dc.subjectHYGIENE
dc.subjectIMMUNE DEFICIENCY
dc.subjectIMMUNODEFICIENCY
dc.subjectINHERENT BIASES
dc.subjectLARGE POPULATION
dc.subjectLONGER LIVES
dc.subjectLOWER FERTILITY
dc.subjectMILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOAL
dc.subjectMINISTRY OF HEALTH
dc.subjectMORTALITY
dc.subjectMORTALITY RATES
dc.subjectMOTHER
dc.subjectMOTHER-TO-CHILD
dc.subjectMOTHER-TO-CHILD TRANSMISSION
dc.subjectNATIONAL AIDS
dc.subjectNATIONAL LEVEL
dc.subjectNATIONAL LEVELS
dc.subjectNATIONAL POPULATION
dc.subjectNATIONAL PROGRESS
dc.subjectNEW CASES
dc.subjectNEW INFECTIONS
dc.subjectNUCLEIC ACID
dc.subjectNUMBER OF NEW INFECTIONS
dc.subjectNUTRITION
dc.subjectOLDER ADULTS
dc.subjectOLDER AGE GROUPS
dc.subjectOLDER PEOPLE
dc.subjectPATIENT
dc.subjectPATIENTS
dc.subjectPERSONAL COMMUNICATION
dc.subjectPOLICY DISCUSSIONS
dc.subjectPOLICY MAKERS
dc.subjectPOLICY RESEARCH
dc.subjectPOLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER
dc.subjectPOPULATION DYNAMICS
dc.subjectPOPULATION RESEARCH
dc.subjectPOPULATION RESEARCH CENTRE
dc.subjectPOPULOUS COUNTRY
dc.subjectPREGNANT WOMEN
dc.subjectPREVALENCE
dc.subjectPREVENTION EFFORTS
dc.subjectPREVENTION STRATEGIES
dc.subjectPROGRESS
dc.subjectREGIONAL STRATEGIES
dc.subjectRISK FACTORS
dc.subjectRISK POPULATIONS
dc.subjectSERVICE PROVISION
dc.subjectSEX
dc.subjectSEX DISTRIBUTION
dc.subjectSEX WORKERS
dc.subjectSEXUAL ACTIVITY
dc.subjectSEXUAL BEHAVIOR
dc.subjectSEXUAL BEHAVIORS
dc.subjectSEXUAL TRANSMISSION
dc.subjectSEXUALLY ACTIVE
dc.subjectSEXUALLY ACTIVE WOMEN
dc.subjectSURVEILLANCE DATA
dc.subjectTHERAPY
dc.subjectTREATMENT
dc.subjectTROPICAL MEDICINE
dc.subjectUNAIDS
dc.subjectUNIVERSAL ACCESS
dc.subjectVIRAL LOAD
dc.subjectVIRAL LOADS
dc.subjectVOLUNTARY COUNSELING
dc.subjectYOUNG ADULTS
dc.subjectYOUNG AGES
dc.subjectYOUNG MEN
dc.subjectYOUNG PEOPLE
dc.subjectYOUNG WOMEN
dc.subjectYOUTH
dc.titleA Comprehensive Review of Empirical and Modeled HIV Incidence Trends (1990-2012)

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