Afghanistan Economic Update, October 2012
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Washington, DC
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Afghanistan is in a state of transition
which involves the handover of security responsibilities
from international forces to the Afghan government. However,
at present, Afghanistan's economy is growing strongly
as a result of an exceptionally good harvest this year. Real
gross domestic product (GDP) growth will most likely close
the calendar year at 10 percent, a significant increase from
last year's 5.8 percent. The services and construction
sectors continue to grow strongly, driven mostly by
continued high military spending and external aid. The good
harvest has also brought Afghanistan to near food
self-sufficiency and slowed inflation to 4.6 percent in July
2012 (y-o-y). Progress in the mining sector is clouded by
uncertainty about a new mineral law. While investor interest
in the sector is encouraging, gaps in the legal and
regulatory framework of the sector do not provide sufficient
confidence to investors to start operations or make firm
commitments. A new low is in preparation but has also been
heavily debated. Afghanistan's economic growth
prospects for 2012 give cause for optimism. Although real
GDP growth slowed, to around 7 percent in 2011 (from 8
percent the year before), due mainly to unfavorable weather
and a poor harvest, the agriculture sector rebounded
strongly in 2012 and is expected to boost economic growth to
over 10 percent. Agriculture is an important but volatile
component of economic growth.
Palabras clave
ACCESS TO MARKETS, ACCOUNTABILITY, ACCOUNTING, AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT, AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, AGRICULTURE, AUDITS, BALANCE OF PAYMENT, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BANK DEPOSITS, BANKING SECTOR, BANKRUPTCY, BENCHMARKS, BROAD MONEY, BUDGET DEFICIT, BUDGETING, BUSINESS CONFIDENCE, BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT, CAPACITY BUILDING, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CIVIL SERVICE, COMMERCIAL BANK, COMMERCIAL BANKING, COMMERCIAL LOANS, COMMODITIES, COMMODITY, COMMODITY PRICE, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSOLIDATION, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE, CORRUPTION, CREDIT ANALYSIS, CREDITS, CURRENCY, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, DEBT STOCK, DEMAND FOR CREDIT, DEMOCRACY, DEPOSITS, DEVELOPMENT INVESTMENTS, DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS, DISBURSEMENTS, DOMESTIC CREDIT, DONOR FUNDING, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, ENTERPRISE DEVELOPMENT, EQUIPMENT, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT BASE, EXPORT EARNINGS, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORT MARKET, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL DEBT, FAMILIES, FARMERS, FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION, FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FINANCING NEEDS, FISCAL REFORMS, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, FOREIGN CAPITAL, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, GDP PER CAPITA, GOVERNMENT FINANCE, GOVERNMENT INVESTMENTS, GOVERNMENT REVENUES, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, GROWTH PROJECTIONS, GROWTH RATES, HOUSEHOLDS, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, HUMAN RIGHTS, INCOME, INCOME LEVEL, INCOMES, INFLATION, INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY, INSTRUMENT, INTERNAL CONTROLS, INTERNATIONAL BANKS, INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, INTERNATIONAL RESERVES, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, INVESTMENT FINANCING, INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO, INVESTOR CONFIDENCE, INVESTOR INTEREST, LAWS, LEGAL FRAMEWORK, LEVY, LOAN, LOAN PORTFOLIO, M2, MARKET DEVELOPMENT, MICRO FINANCE, MICRO FINANCE SECTOR, MICROFINANCE, MICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONS, MICROFINANCE SECTOR, MONETARY POLICY, MONEY GROWTH, NATURAL RESOURCES, NEW MARKET, NEW MARKETS, NEW PRODUCTS, NPL, OPEN MARKET, OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS, OPERATING EXPENDITURES, OUTSTANDING LOANS, PENSION, PENSION REFORM, PLEDGES, POLICY RESPONSES, POLITICAL ECONOMY, PORTFOLIO, PRICE CHANGES, PRICE INCREASES, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PRIVATE INVESTORS, PRIVATIZATION, PROFIT MARGIN, PUBLIC FINANCE, PUBLIC FINANCES, PUBLIC SERVICES, REAL GDP, REAL SECTOR, REFORM PROGRAM, REGIONAL INTEGRATION, REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT, REGULATORY FRAMEWORK, REMITTANCE, RESERVE, RESERVES, REVENUE MOBILIZATION, RULE OF LAW, RURAL ACCESS, SAVINGS, SECURITY RISK, SHAREHOLDERS, SUBNATIONAL FINANCE, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, TAX, TAX ADMINISTRATION, TAX COLLECTION, TAX COMPLIANCE, TERRORISM, TIMELY PAYMENT, TOTAL DEBT, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE DEFICIT, TRADE FACILITATION, TRANSPORT, TRUST FUND, TRUST FUNDS, UNDERDEVELOPED FINANCIAL SECTOR, URBAN AREAS, URBAN DEVELOPMENT, WAGES, WHOLESALE PRICES, WITHDRAWAL, WTO