A NOTE ON BIAS IN THE ESTIMATED EFFECTS OF BEEF IMPORTS ON U.S. MEAT PRICES
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The impact of beef imports on United States meat prices is a highly emotional and controversial issue. Congressmen representing urban districts, and to a lesser extent the Administration, look towards beef imports as a way of containing rapid increases in meat prices. Congressmen and Senators from beef-producing States regard beef imports as a direct attack on the U.S. beef-producing industry.
These differing views are being reconciled through Congress considering amendments to the Meat Import Law (Public Law 88-482). The impacts and the amendments are of vital interest to Australia because about 25 per cent of Australia's beef production is sold on the lucrative U.S. market.
In this note it is argued that, in general, the reported impacts on U.S. meat prices are overestimates because the analysts misspecify the structure of the U.S. beef industry.