HIV/AIDS, growth and poverty in KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa: Integrating firm-level surveys with demographic and economywide modeling
| dc.creator | Thurlow, James | |
| dc.creator | George, Gavin | |
| dc.creator | Gow, Jeff | |
| dc.date | 2009 | |
| dc.date | 2024-11-21T09:59:00Z | |
| dc.date | 2024-11-21T09:59:00Z | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2026-06-27T15:15:56Z | |
| dc.description | This paper estimates the economic impact of HIV/AIDS on KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and the rest of South Africa (RSA). We extend previous studies by employing an integrated analytical framework that combines the following: firm-level surveys of workers’ HIV prevalence by sector and occupation; a demographic model that produces both population and workforce projections; and a regionalized economywide model linked to a survey-based micro-simulation module. This framework permits a full macro-microeconomic assessment. The results indicate that HIV/AIDS greatly reduces annual economic growth, mainly by lowering the long-term rate of technical change. However, the impacts on income poverty are small, and inequality is reduced by HIV/AIDS. This is because high unemployment among low-income households minimizes the economic costs of increased mortality. In contrast, slower economic growth hurts higher-income households despite the lower prevalence of HIV among these households. We conclude that the increase in economic growth achieved through addressing HIV/AIDS is sufficient to offset the population pressure this move will place on income poverty. Moreover, incentives to mitigate HIV/AIDS lie not only with poorer infected households, but also with uninfected higher-income households. Our findings reveal that HIV/AIDS will place a substantial burden on future economic development in KZN and RSA, confirming the need for policies to curb the economic costs of this pandemic. | |
| dc.format | application/pdf | |
| dc.identifier | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/161872 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/99312 | |
| dc.language | en | |
| dc.publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute | |
| dc.rights | Open Access | |
| dc.source | Thurlow, James; George, Gavin; Gow, Jeff. 2009. HIV/AIDS, growth and poverty in KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa. IFPRI Discussion Paper 864. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/161872 | |
| dc.subject | HIV infections | |
| dc.subject | growth | |
| dc.subject | poverty | |
| dc.subject | development policies | |
| dc.title | HIV/AIDS, growth and poverty in KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa: Integrating firm-level surveys with demographic and economywide modeling | |
| dc.type | Working Paper |