What are the economic and poverty implications for Sudan if the conflict continues through 2025?

Vista sencilla de ítem
dc.creatorAhmed, Mosab O. M.
dc.creatorRaouf, Mariam
dc.creatorSiddig, Khalid
dc.date2026-01
dc.date2025-06-27T18:47:30Z
dc.date2025-06-27T18:47:30Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T14:57:45Z
dc.descriptionThe ongoing conflict in Sudan, which began in April 2023, has triggered severe economic contractions, exacerbating poverty and unemployment while disrupting key sectors of the economy. This study employs an updated economywide database to assess the economic impact of a continued conflict through the end of 2025 under two scenarios of extreme and moderate contractions in the overall GDP. Our findings indicate that by the end of 2025, Sudan’s GDP would decline by 42% under the extreme scenario and 32% under the moderate scenario. The agrifood system would be particularly affected, with its GDP contracting by 33.6% and employment halving under the extreme scenario. Household incomes decline across all quintiles, with rural populations and women experiencing the sharpest losses. The national poverty rate is projected to rise by 19 percentage points under the extreme scenario, further deepening socioeconomic vulnerabilities. To mitigate the widespread adverse impacts of the conflict on the Sudanese economy, policies and interventions should prioritize the restoration of economic productivity, support the agrifood system and employment recovery strategies, and ensure that social protection measures are accessible to all households facing increased deprivation.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/175358
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/90609
dc.languageen
dc.publisherInforma UK Limited
dc.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/168102
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceAhmed, Mosab O. M.; Raouf, Mariam; and Siddig, Khalid. 2026. What are the economic and poverty implications for Sudan if the conflict continues through 2025? Journal of Development Studies 62(1): 106-127. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2025.2510642
dc.subjecteconomic situation
dc.subjectpoverty
dc.subjectconflicts
dc.subjectarmed conflicts
dc.titleWhat are the economic and poverty implications for Sudan if the conflict continues through 2025?
dc.typeJournal Article

Archivos

Colecciones

Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)