Remarks for Yale Workshop on Global Trends and Challenges
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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This paper argues that global imbalances
in current account positions are a natural consequence of
globalization of financial markets and of demographic
trends, particularly in Europe and in East Asia. Those
societies are aging rapidly, with declining numbers of young
adults. On both counts savings should be high and investment
weak, resulting in excess saving. With globalization of
capital markets, this excess saving will naturally seek
secure investment opportunities abroad. The U.S. economy,
where demographic trends are markedly different (due in part
to immigration of young adults), offers a good combination
of yield, liquidity, and security for this excess savings,
which in time will be liquidated to finance consumption in
old age. Thus the large 'imbalance' does not
obviously reflect disequilibria in the world economy, but
rather a current phase of intertemporal trade.
Palabras clave
ACCOUNTING, ASSETS, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BALANCE SHEETS, BONDS, BUDGET DEFICITS, CAPITAL GAINS, CAPITAL GAINS ON EQUITIES, CAPITAL INVESTMENT, CAPITAL MARKET, CAPITAL MARKETS, CAPITAL OUTFLOW, CAPITAL STOCK, CENTRAL BANK, CENTRAL BANKS, COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE, CONSOLIDATION, CONSUMER CREDIT, CONSUMER DURABLES, CONSUMERS, CORPORATE SAVINGS, CURRENCY, CURRENCY APPRECIATION, CURRENCY APPRECIATIONS, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS, CURRENT ACCOUNT POSITIONS, CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS, CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUSES, DEBT, DEBT INSTRUMENTS, DEBT OBLIGATIONS, DEBTOR, DEMOGRAPHIC, DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE, DEPRECIATION, DERIVATIVES, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRY, DIRECT INVESTMENT, DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH, DIVIDENDS, DOLLAR VALUES, DOMESTIC DEMAND, DYNAMIC ECONOMY, ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS, ECONOMIC DOWNTURN, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC RECESSION, ECONOMIC RESEARCH, ECONOMIC SIZE, ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS, EQUIPMENT, EQUITY INVESTMENT, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL INDEBTEDNESS, FACTORS OF PRODUCTION, FEDERAL BUDGET, FEDERAL RESERVE, FINANCIAL ASSETS, FINANCIAL CLAIMS, FINANCIAL CRISES, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL FLOWS, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS, FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FINANCIAL SYSTEM, FISCAL CONSOLIDATION, FISCAL POLICIES, FISCAL POLICY, FIXED CAPITAL, FLOW OF FUNDS, FOREIGN ASSETS, FOREIGN CAPITAL, FOREIGN CLAIMS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS, FOREIGN FUNDS, FOREIGN INVESTMENT, FOREIGN INVESTMENTS, FOREIGN INVESTORS, FOREIGN OWNERSHIP, GDP, GLOBAL IMBALANCES, GLOBALIZATION, GOVERNMENT DEFICITS, GOVERNMENT REVENUE, GRAVITY MODEL, GRAVITY MODELS, GROWTH THEORY, HIGH CAPITAL MOBILITY, HOME COUNTRIES, HOME CURRENCIES, HOME EQUITY, HOME EQUITY LOANS, HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS, IMBALANCE, IMPORT, IMPORT DEMAND, IMPORTS, INCOME STREAM, INCOMES, INDEBTEDNESS, INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS, INTANGIBLE, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL BANK, INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS, INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS, INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT, INVESTING, INVESTMENT EFFICIENCY, INVESTMENT INCOME, INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES, INVESTMENT RATES, JUDGE, JUDGMENT, KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY, LABOR FORCE, LIQUIDITY, LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES, MACROECONOMIC POLICY, MAJOR CURRENCIES, MANDATE, MARKET EXCHANGE RATES, MARKET VALUE, MARKETABLE SECURITIES, MONETARY AUTHORITIES, MONETARY POLICY, MORTGAGE, MORTGAGE LENDING, MORTGAGES, NATIONAL ECONOMIES, NATIONAL SAVING, NATIONAL SAVINGS, NATURAL RESOURCES, NEW PRODUCTS, OIL EXPORTERS, OIL PRICES, OTHER CURRENCIES, OUTPUT, OUTSTANDING CLAIMS, PASSIVE INVESTORS, PAYMENTS CRISES, PENSION, PER CAPITA INCOME, PER CAPITA INCOMES, PORTFOLIO, PORTFOLIO EQUITY, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRIVATE CAPITAL, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PRIVATE SAVING, PRODUCTIVE INVESTMENT, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PROPERTY RIGHTS, PUBLIC DEFICIT, PUBLIC PENSION, PUBLIC SAVING, RAPID ECONOMIC GROWTH, RAPID GROWTH, REAL EXCHANGE RATES, RECESSION, REMOTE LOCATION, RETIREMENT AGE, RETURN, RETURNS, RISK AVERSE, RISK AVERSION, RISK EQUITY, SAVINGS RATES, SECURITIES, SETTLEMENT, SLOWDOWN, STOCKS, SURPLUS, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, TRADE DEFICIT, TREASURY, TREASURY SECURITIES, UNCERTAINTY, UNFUNDED PENSION, VALUATION, VALUATION CHANGES, VALUATIONS, VOLATILITY, WORLD ECONOMY, WORLD FINANCIAL MARKETS