Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change?
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Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank
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Measurement of the likely magnitude of
the economic impact of climate change on African agriculture
has been a challenge. Using data from a survey of more than
9,000 farmers across 11 African countries, a cross-sectional
approach estimates how farm net revenues are affected by
climate change compared with current mean temperature.
Revenues fall with warming for dryland crops (temperature
elasticity of -1.9) and livestock (-5.4), whereas revenues
rise for irrigated crops (elasticity of 0.5), which are
located in relatively cool parts of Africa and are buffered
by irrigation from the effects of warming. At first, warming
has little net aggregate effect as the gains for irrigated
crops offset the losses for dryland crops and livestock.
Warming, however, will likely reduce dryland farm income
immediately. The final effects will also depend on changes
in precipitation, because revenues from all farm types
increase with precipitation. Because irrigated farms are
less sensitive to climate, where water is available,
irrigation is a practical adaptation to climate change in Africa.
Palabras clave
AGRICULTURAL CROPS, AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, AGRICULTURAL POLICIES, AGRICULTURAL TRADE, AGRICULTURE, ANNUAL PRECIPITATION, APPLIED METEOROLOGY, CALCULATION, CARBON, CARBON DIOXIDE, CARBON DIOXIDE LEVELS, CARBON FERTILIZATION, CLIMATE, CLIMATE ADAPTATION, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS, CLIMATE CONDITIONS, CLIMATE DATA, CLIMATE IMPACTS, CLIMATE MODELS, CLIMATE PREDICTION, CLIMATE RESPONSE, CLIMATE SCENARIO, CLIMATE SCENARIOS, CLIMATE SENSITIVITY, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, CLIMATE VARIABLE, CLIMATE VARIABLES, CLIMATE VARIATION, CLIMATES, CLIMATIC CHANGE, CLOUDS, CROP, CROP DEVELOPMENT, CROP FARM, CROP PRODUCTION, CROP PRODUCTIVITY, CROP REVENUE, CROP SIMULATION, CROPLAND, CROPS, DEGREE DAYS, ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, ECONOMIC IMPACT, ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE, EFFECT OF TEMPERATURE, ELASTICITIES, ELECTRICITY, EMPIRICAL STUDIES, ENVIRONMENTAL, ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS, EQUILIBRIUM, EQUIPMENT, EXTREME EVENT, FARM, FARM ACTIVITIES, FARM DATA, FARM INCOME, FARM SIZE, FARMERS, FARMING, FARMS, FERTILIZER, FOOD SECURITY, FOOD SUPPLY, GLOBAL CLIMATE, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL FACILITY, GLOBAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, GLOBAL WARMING, GREENHOUSE, GREENHOUSE DAMAGE, HIGH TEMPERATURES, HUNGER, HYDROLOGICAL DATA, HYDROLOGICAL MODEL, HYDROLOGY, HYDROMETEOROLOGY, IMPACT OF CLIMATE, IMPACT OF TEMPERATURE, IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, INCOMES, INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE, INPUT PRICES, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, IRRIGATION WATER, LABOR COSTS, LABOR MARKETS, LAND ECONOMICS, LAND FOR LIVESTOCK, LAND PRODUCTIVITY, LAND SURFACE, LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LAND USE, LIVESTOCK FARMERS, LIVESTOCK GRAZING, LIVESTOCK LOSSES, LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS, LIVESTOCK SECTOR, MARKET PRICES, MEAN RAINFALL, MEAN TEMPERATURE, METEOROLOGY, MICROECONOMICS, MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE, MONSOONS, NEGATIVE IMPACT, PESTICIDES, PESTS, PP, PRECIPITATION, PRICE CHANGES, PRIVATE SECTOR, PROPERTY RIGHTS, PUBLIC GOOD, RAINFALL, RAINY SEASONS, RESILIENCE OF AGRICULTURE, RURAL DEVELOPMENT, SCIENTISTS, SEASON, SOCIAL COSTS, SOCIAL COSTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, SOCIAL DIMENSIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, SOILS, SUMMER TEMPERATURE, SURFACE TEMPERATURE, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, TEMPERATE CLIMATE, TEMPERATE CLIMATES, TEMPERATURE, TEMPERATURE EFFECTS, WAGE RATES, WAGES, WARMER TEMPERATURES, WELFARE EFFECTS, WINTER TEMPERATURE