India Economic Update, June 2011

World Bank

India Economic Update, June 2011

Autores

World Bank

Editor

Washington, DC

Descripción

In fiscal year 2010-11, India's economy has expanded at a rate close to that observed prior to the global financial crisis. However, growth in the second half of the year slowed, and the performance of industry and investment has been particularly disappointing. Despite some fiscal consolidation and monetary tightening, inflation has emerged as a serious concern because of its effects on the poor, who are usually less able to protect themselves against rising prices, and because of its dampening effects on long-term investment, which is sensitive to interest rate expectations. India's economic growth reached 8.5 percent, helped by a strong rebound of the agriculture sector because of good rains in the 2010 monsoon season against the near-drought conditions of 2009. On the external side, exports staged an extraordinary recovery and the current account deficit narrowed, while capital flows slowed driven by a pronounced decline in foreign direct investment. Foreign institutional investment remained robust, however, and external borrowing increased to compensate partially for the decline in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The rupee remained stable against the U.S. dollar but showed a small real appreciation against a 36-currency trade weighted index, and Reserve Bank of India foreign reserves increased to more than $310 billion. The central government budget deficit for FY2010-11 is estimated to have reached 6 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), an important contraction from the widened fiscal stance of FY2009-10. Budget implementation benefited from higher-than-expected growth in nominal GDP and related higher tax intake; although the tax-to-GDP ratio is still significantly lower than in FY2007-08. The spending-to-GDP ratio, on the other hand, was reduced by 0.7 percent of GDP despite two supplementary demands for grants.

Palabras clave

ACCOUNTING, ADMINISTERED PRICES, ADVANCED ECONOMIES, ADVERSE EFFECTS, AGGREGATE DEMAND, AGRICULTURE, AUCTION, AUCTIONS, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BANK ACCOUNTS, BANK CREDIT, BASE YEAR, BILL, BONDS, CAPITAL ACCOUNT, CAPITAL BASES, CAPITAL FLOWS, CAPITAL FORMATION, CAPITAL GOODS, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CAPITAL OUTFLOW, CENTRAL BANK, CENTRAL GOVERNMENT DEBT, CEREAL PRICES, CHECKS, COMMERCE, COMMODITY PRICES, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSOLIDATION, CONSUMER PRICE, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION, CONSUMER PRICES, CONSUMERS, CONSUMPTION GROWTH, CORE INFLATION, CREDIT GROWTH, CURRENCY, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, CUSTOMS DUTIES, DAMAGES, DEBT BURDEN, DEBT ISSUES, DEFICITS, DEMAND GROWTH, DEPRECIATION, DEREGULATION, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT BANK, DEVELOPMENT POLICIES, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DISTORTIONS, DOLLAR PRICES, DOMESTIC CREDIT, DOMESTIC DEBT, DOMESTIC DEMAND, DOMESTIC MARKET, DOUBLE TAXATION, DURABLES, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC RESEARCH, EMERGING MARKET, EMERGING MARKET COUNTRIES, EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES, EMERGING MARKETS, ENERGY PRICES, EQUIPMENT, EQUITY MARKET, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT GROWTH, EXTERNAL BORROWING, EXTERNAL COMMERCIAL BORROWING, EXTERNAL COMMERCIAL BORROWINGS, EXTERNAL DEBT, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL SYSTEM, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL DEFICITS, FISCAL POLICIES, FIXED CAPITAL, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES, FOREIGN INVESTMENT, FOREIGN INVESTORS, FOREIGN RESERVES, GDP, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM, GLOBAL LIQUIDITY, GOLD, GOVERNMENT BANK, GOVERNMENT BUDGET, GOVERNMENT BUDGET DEFICIT, GOVERNMENT DEBT, GOVERNMENT DEFICIT, GOVERNMENT FINANCES, GROSS NATIONAL SAVINGS, GROWTH RATE, HEDGE FUNDS, HIGH INFLATION, IMPORT, IMPORTS, INCOME TAX, INFLATION, INFLATION EXPECTATIONS, INFLATION RATE, INFLATION RATES, INFLATION RISKS, INFLATIONARY EXPECTATIONS, INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY, INTEREST PAYMENTS, INTEREST RATE, INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIAL, INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS, INTERMEDIATE GOODS, INTERNATIONAL PRICES, INVENTORIES, INVESTING, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, INVESTMENT PROJECTS, INVESTOR PERCEPTIONS, LEVEL OF INFLATION, LIBERALIZATION, LIQUIDITY, LOCAL CURRENCY, LONG-TERM INVESTMENT, M1, M2, M3, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, MACROECONOMIC POLICY, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MAJOR CURRENCIES, MARKET FORCES, MARKET INFRASTRUCTURE, MARKET PENETRATION, MARKET PRICES, MARKET SHARE, MARKET SHARES, MARKET STABILIZATION, MARKETING, MERCHANDISE, MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, MERCHANDISE TRADE, MERGERS, MONETARY AGGREGATES, MONETARY POLICY, MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS, MONEY SUPPLY, NATIONAL SAVINGS, OIL PRICES, PEGS, PETROLEUM PRICES, POLICY CREDIBILITY, PORTFOLIO, PORTFOLIO INFLOWS, PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT, PORTFOLIO INVESTMENTS, PRICE INCREASES, PRICE WARS, PRICING POLICY, PRIVATE CONSUMPTION, PRIVATE EQUITY, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PROFIT MARGINS, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC SPENDING, RATE OF INFLATION, REAL APPRECIATION, REAL GDP, REAL INCOME, REAL INTEREST, REAL INTEREST RATES, REMITTANCES, REPO, REPO RATE, REPO RATES, RESERVE, RESERVE BANK, RESERVES, RETAIL, RETAIL PRICES, RETAIL TRADE, RETAILING, RETURN, SAFETY NET, SAFETY NETS, SALE, SALES, SHORT-TERM CAPITAL, SHORT-TERM DEBT, SHORT-TERM EXTERNAL DEBT, SLOWDOWN, SPREAD, STOCKS, STRUCTURAL CHANGE, SUPPLIERS, SUPPLY CHAIN, SUPPLY CONDITIONS, SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS, SUPPLY RESPONSE, SUPPLY SHOCKS, SURPLUS, SURPLUSES, TAX, TAX COLLECTIONS, TAX RULES, TELECOMMUNICATIONS, TOTAL DEBT, TOTAL EXPORTS, TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT, TOTAL IMPORTS, TOTAL REVENUE, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE DEFICIT, TRADE DEFICITS, TRADE RESTRICTIONS, TRADING, TREATY, UNCERTAINTY, VOLATILITY, WAGES, WEAK DEMAND, WHOLESALE PRICE, WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX, WITHDRAWAL, WORKING CAPITAL, WTO