Afghanistan Economic Update, October 2013
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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Uncertainty surrounding the political
and security transition in Afghanistan has led to a slowdown
in economic growth in 2013, following strong growth in 2012.
After a decade of strong fiscal performance, revenue
collection has weakened in 2013, potentially delaying
Afghanistan's path toward self-reliance. In order to
preserve fiscal sustainability, a concerted effort will be
required going forward to improve revenue mobilization by
strengthening tax and customs administration and by
expediting introduction and implementation of the planned
value-added tax. Afghanistan faces considerable expenditure
needs in the areas of security, infrastructure development,
service delivery, and operations and maintenance. Meeting
these needs will also require significant grant assistance
for the foreseeable future. In spite of the
transition-related uncertainty and underperformance,
Afghanistan will need to stay focused on its medium term
structural reform goals. These include: (i) safeguarding
sustainability by mobilizing revenue and securing grant
assistance; (ii) supporting inclusive and job-creating
post-transition growth by unlocking the potential of the
agriculture and natural resource sectors and by tapping the
potential of regional integration; (iii) improving upon the
low levels of human capital and skills; and (iv) continuing
to strengthen institutions and governance. This report is
organized as follows: section one gives recent economic
developments; section two presents economic outlook and
medium term prospects; and section three presents structural
policies for the medium term.
Palabras clave
ACCESS TO FINANCE, ACCOUNTING, ADMINISTRATIVE BURDEN, ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT, ADVISORY SERVICES, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, AGRICULTURAL SECTORS, AGRICULTURE, AID DEPENDENT, AUDITS, BANK FINANCING, BANK POLICY, BANKING LAW, BANKING SECTOR, BINDING CONSTRAINT, BROAD MONEY, CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT, CAPITAL FLIGHT, CAPITAL FORMATION, CAPITAL INFLOWS, COLLATERAL, COLLATERAL REGISTRY, COMMERCIAL BANKS, COMMODITY, COMMODITY PRICES, CONSUMER SPENDING, CONTRACT ENFORCEMENT, CORRUPTION, CPI, CREDIT BUREAU, CREDITS, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, DEBT, DECISION MAKING, DEMOGRAPHIC, DEPOSIT, DEPOSITS, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY, DOMESTIC INVESTORS, ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC IMPACT, ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, ECONOMIC SECTOR WORK, ECONOMICS, EDUCATION SYSTEM, EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE, ENABLING ENVIRONMENT, ENROLLMENT, ENVIRONMENTAL, ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXPORTER, EXPORTS, EXPOSURE, EXTERNAL DEBT, EXTERNAL TRADE, EXTERNALITIES, FAMILIES, FAMILY BUSINESSES, FARMERS, FINANCE CORPORATION, FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FINANCIAL MARKETS DEVELOPMENT, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FINANCIAL SECTORS, FINANCING NEEDS, FIXED CAPITAL, FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES, FOREIGN FIRMS, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GOOD GOVERNANCE, GOVERNMENT FINANCE, GOVERNMENT INVESTMENTS, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, GUARANTEE AGENCY, HUMAN CAPITAL, INCOME, INCOME TAX, INCOMES, INFLATION, INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT, INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS, INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, INTERNATIONAL RESERVES, INTERNATIONAL SECURITY, INVENTORIES, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO, INVESTOR CONFIDENCE, JOB CREATION, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKET, LEGISLATIVE FRAMEWORK, LOAN, LOAN-TO-DEPOSIT RATIO, LOCAL CURRENCY, M2, MATURITY, MINES, MONEY GROWTH, NATURAL RESOURCE, NATURAL RESOURCES, NEW COMPANIES, OIL, OPEN MARKET, OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS, OUTPUT, OUTPUTS, OUTREACH, PENSION, PHYSICAL CAPITAL, PLEDGES, POLICY DECISIONS, POLITICAL ECONOMY, POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY, PORTFOLIO, PRICE INCREASES, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT, PROFITABILITY, PROPERTY TAX, PUBLIC CREDIT, PUBLIC EXPENDITURES, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC POLICIES, PUBLIC POLICY, RAPID EXPANSION, RATE OF RETURN, REAL ESTATE, REAL GDP, REFORM PROGRAM, REGIONAL INTEGRATION, REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT, REGULATORY FRAMEWORK, REGULATORY OVERSIGHT, RESERVE, RISK MANAGEMENT, RISK PERCEPTION, RULE OF LAW, RURAL ACCESS, SAFETY NET, SUPPLY CHAINS, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, TAX, TAX CODE, TAX INCENTIVES, TAX RATE, TAX RATES, TAX REVENUE, TAX REVENUES, TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE, TELECOMMUNICATIONS, TOTAL REVENUE, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE DEFICIT, TRADING, TRANSPARENCY, TRANSPARENT PROCESSES, TRANSPORTATION SERVICES, TRUST FUND, VALUATION, VALUE ADDED, VOLATILITY, WITHDRAWAL