South East Europe Regular Economic Report, No. 5 : Slow Road to Recovery

World Bank

South East Europe Regular Economic Report, No. 5 : Slow Road to Recovery

Autores

World Bank

Editor

Washington, DC

Descripción

The South East Europe (SEE6) region exited from recession in the first half of 2013, supported by a nascent recovery in the Euro area. Industry-especially manufacturing exports and energy drove the recovery. The region experienced a welcome surge in exports in 2013, particularly car exports from Serbia. Unemployment in the region, at about 24 percent on average, began to decline in the first half of 2013 from its peak crisis levels. While employment grew in Albania, FYR Macedonia and Montenegro, it remained depressed in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Unemployment in the region, at about 24 percent on average, began to decline in the first half of 2013 from its peak crisis levels. While employment grew in Albania, FYR Macedonia and Montenegro, it remained depressed in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. But even where employment has recovered meaningfully since 2010, the gains were not broad-based and mostly concentrated in services Near-term economic growth will be too weak to support substantial gains in employment. Weak domestic demand depressed imports in all countries but Serbia, where their rise was led by raw materials and parts used in export-oriented industries. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) remained sluggish in SEE6, rising only by 0.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), but its share of financing of the current account increased. Remittances continued to be resilient overall, but the Greek crisis began to take its toll, especially on Albania. Foreign banks' deleveraging from SEE6, rising Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) and weak credit growth underpinned the need for vigorous reforms to reduce vulnerabilities in the financial sector. European banks continued to deleverage and reduced their exposure to the SEE6 region. With the aim of improving their resilience and supervisory capacity, the SEE6 countries made some progress in implementing banking reforms over the past year.

Palabras clave

ACCOUNTABILITY, ACCOUNTING, ACCOUNTING STANDARDS, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS, ANNUAL GROWTH, ARREARS, ARREARS ACCUMULATION, ASSET MANAGEMENT, ASSET MANAGEMENT COMPANIES, ASSET PRICES, ASSET QUALITY, BAD DEBT, BALANCE SHEET, BALANCE SHEETS, BANK BALANCE SHEET, BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS, BANK LENDING, BANK OF GREECE, BANK PORTFOLIOS, BANK PROFITABILITY, BANKING SYSTEM, BANKING SYSTEMS, BANKRUPTCY, BASIS POINTS, BID, BILL, BOND, BOND FINANCING, BOND ISSUANCES, BORROWING, BORROWING COSTS, BROAD MONEY, BUFFERS, CAPITAL ADEQUACY, CAPITAL FLOWS, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CAPITAL MARKETS, CDS, CENTRAL BANK, CENTRAL BANKS, CHAMBER OF COMMERCE, CLARITY, COLLATERAL, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSOLIDATION, CONTINGENCY PLANNING, CORPORATE DEBT, CORPORATE INSOLVENCY, CREDIT DEFAULT, CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP, CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS, CREDIT GROWTH, CREDIT RATING, CREDIT RATINGS, CREDIT UNDERWRITING, CREDITORS, CURRENCY, CURRENCY BOARD, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS, DEBT, DEBT LEVELS, DEBT RESTRUCTURING, DEBT STOCK, DEPOSIT, DEPOSITS, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRY, DISINFLATION, DISPUTE RESOLUTION, DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION, DOMESTIC CURRENCIES, DOMESTIC DEMAND, DURABLE, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, EMERGING MARKET, EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES, EMPLOYMENT, ENFORCEMENT PROCEDURES, EQUITY MARKETS, EXCHANGE ARRANGEMENTS, EXPENDITURE, EXPORT CAPACITY, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORT PERFORMANCE, EXTERNAL DEBT, EXTERNAL DEFICIT, EXTERNAL DEMAND, EXTERNAL FINANCING, EXTERNAL POSITION, FACTORING, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL FLOWS, FINANCIAL RESTRUCTURING, FINANCIAL SYSTEM, FISCAL BALANCE, FISCAL BALANCES, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL DEFICITS, FISCAL DISCIPLINE, FISCAL IMBALANCES, FISCAL POSITIONS, FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATES, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, FORECLOSURE, FOREIGN BANKS, FOREIGN CURRENCIES, FOREIGN CURRENCY, FOREIGN CURRENCY EXPOSURE, FOREIGN CURRENCY LENDING, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, GLOBAL CAPITAL, GOVERNMENT DEBT, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES, HOUSEHOLD DEBT, HOUSEHOLD INCOMES, HOUSEHOLDS, IMPORT, IMPORT DEMAND, IMPORTS, INFLATION, INFLATIONARY PRESSURES, INFORMAL ECONOMY, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL BANK, INTERNATIONAL MARKET, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, LABOR COSTS, LABOR FORCE, LABOR FORCE SURVEY, LABOR FORCE SURVEYS, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKETS, LACK OF AWARENESS, LEGAL TENDER, LEGISLATION, LIQUIDATION, LIQUIDITY, LIQUIDITY RATIO, LOAN, LOAN PORTFOLIO, LOAN QUALITY, LOAN-TO-DEPOSIT RATIO, LOAN-TO-DEPOSIT RATIOS, LOCAL CURRENCY, LONDON CLUB, LONG- TERM COST, MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MARKET CONDITIONS, MINISTRIES OF FINANCE, MONETARY AGGREGATES, MONETARY POLICY, MONEY SUPPLY, MORTGAGES, NON-PERFORMING LOANS, NOTARY, NPL, OUTPUT GAPS, OUTTURNS, OVERDUE LOANS, PEGS, PENSIONS, PORTFOLIO INVESTMENTS, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRICE INFLATION, PRIVATE CONSUMPTION, PRIVATE CREDIT, PRIVATE DEBT, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PROBLEM LOANS, PRODUCTIVITY, PROFITABILITY, PROPERTY RIGHTS, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC DEBTS, PUBLIC EXPENDITURE, PUBLIC EXPENDITURES, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, REAL PROPERTY, REAL SECTOR, REAL WAGE GROWTH, RECESSION, REGULATORY AUTHORITIES, REMITTANCES, RESERVES, RETURN, RETURN ON ASSETS, RISK AVERSION, SHORTFALLS, SLACK, SLOWDOWN, SOVEREIGN BOND, SPARE CAPACITY, STATE GUARANTEES, STRUCTURAL REFORMS, STRUCTURAL RIGIDITIES, SUBSIDIARIES, SUBSIDIARY, SYSTEMIC CRISIS, TARIFF BARRIERS, TAX, TAX ADMINISTRATION, TAX COLLECTIONS, TAX HIKES, TAX LAWS, TAXATION, TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE, TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE BALANCES, TRADE FLOWS, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, TRADE REGIME, TRADING, TRANSPARENCY, TRANSPORT, UNCERTAINTY, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, UNION, WAGES