COVID-19 and Food Protectionism
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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This paper analyzes the impact of
Covid-19 and uncooperative trade policies on world food
markets. It quantifies the initial shock due to the pandemic
under the assumption that products that are more labor
intensive in production are more affected through
workers' morbidity and containment policies. It then
estimates how escalating export restrictions to shield
domestic food markets could magnify the initial shock. The
analysis shows that, in the quarter following the outbreak
of the pandemic, the global export supply of food could
decrease between 6 and 20 percent and global prices increase
between 2 and 6 percent on average. Escalating export
restrictions would multiply the initial shock by a factor of
3, with world food prices rising by up to 18 percent on
average. Import food dependent countries, which are in large
majority developing and least developed countries, would be
most affected.
Palabras clave
CORONAVIRUS, COVID-19, PANDEMIC RESPONSE, FOOD PROTECTIONISM, TRADE POLICY, EXPORT RESTRICTIONS, FOOD PRICES, GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS