The Role of Oscillatory Modes in U.S. Business Cycles
| dc.creator | Groth, Andreas | |
| dc.creator | Ghil, Michael | |
| dc.creator | Hallegatte, Stephane | |
| dc.creator | Dumas, Patrice | |
| dc.date | 2017-04-01T15:16:02Z | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2026-07-09T06:15:44Z | |
| dc.description | We apply the advanced time-and-frequency-domain method of singular spectrum analysis to study business cycle dynamics in a set of nine U.S. macroeconomic indicators. This method provides a robust way to identify and reconstruct shared oscillations, whether intermittent or modulated. We address the problem of spurious cycles generated by the use of detrending filters and present a Monte Carlo test to extract significant oscillations. Finally, we demonstrate that the behavior of the U.S. economy changes significantly between episodes of growth and recession; these variations cannot be generated by random shocks alone, in the absence of endogenous variability. | |
| dc.identifier | doi:10.22004/ag.econ.127421 | |
| dc.identifier | https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/127421/files/NDL2012-026.pdf | |
| dc.identifier | http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/127421 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/574367 | |
| dc.language | eng | |
| dc.publisher | ||
| dc.source | http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/127421 | |
| dc.title | The Role of Oscillatory Modes in U.S. Business Cycles | |
| dc.type | Text |