Prospects for Growth in Grain Production in China
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China's capacity to increase production and economic efficiency in agriculture
in the 1980s will depend on its ability to adopt appropriate policies and to
overcome technical and environmental constraints. Insistence on local and
regional self-reliance led to an overemphasis on grain production at the expense
of cash crops (oilseeds, cotton, soybeans, etc.) and fodder acreage. The
effectiveness of policy changes will depend on the ease with which technical and
environmental constraints can be overcome.
Approximately 50 percent of China's gross agricultural product is derived from
grain, and grain provides close to 90 percent of all calories consumed in China.
Until recently there have been few data on which to judge the past
performance or future potential of Chinese agriculture. Even now, available
data are spotty and frequently of variable quality, rendering any attempts at
quantitative analysis suspect. For such a large and climatically diverse country,
national aggregates provide no clear understanding of technical constaints or
growth potentials.