Prospective Stratégique : Elaboration de Scénarios sur la Transition Agroécologique (TAE) en Tunisie / Rappel de Quelques Eléments d’Orientations Méthodologiques
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International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
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This methodological brief delineates the strategic foresight process through eight key steps: i) identification of the central question for exploring future scenarios; ii) identification of key influencing factors related to the question; iii) identification of key external driving forces; iv) ranking these forces according to importance and unpredictability; v) development of a scenario logic with two main axes of critical forces; vi) Concretizing the scenarios narratives in a more explicit way; vii) explore the implications of these scenarios on food systems outcomes ; and finally viii) selection of advanced indicators to monitor and refine the scenarios over time. The document briefly defines and presents each of these methodological steps.
Palabras clave
tunisia, agroecology, agroecological transition, foresight, strategic foresight process