Africa's Growth Turnaround

Page, John

Africa's Growth Turnaround

Autores

Page, John

Editor

World Bank, Washington, DC

Descripción

After stagnating for much of its postcolonial history, economic performance in Sub?Saharan Africa has markedly improved. Since 1995, average economic growth has been close to 5 percent per year. Has Africa finally turned the corner? This paper analyzes growth accelerations and decelerations-that is, country level deviations from long?run trend growth. Seen from this perspective, Africa's record of slow and volatile growth reflects a pattern of offsetting accelerations and declines, and much of the improvement in economic performance in Africa post 1995 turns out to be due to a substantial reduction in the frequency and severity of growth decelerations. The fall in economic declines since 1995 is largely due to better macroeconomic policies, but changes in such 'growth determinants' as investment, export diversification, and productivity have not accompanied the growth boom. Lack of change in these variables and the significant role played by natural resources in sparking growth accelerations suggest that Africa's growth recovery was fragile, even before the recent global economic crisis. The paper concludes by setting out four elements of a strategy that can help move Africa from fewer mistakes to sustained growth: managing natural resources better, pushing nontraditional exports, building the African private sector, and creating new skills.

Palabras clave

ABSOLUTE VALUE, ACCOUNTABILITY, AGGREGATE LEVEL, AGRICULTURE, AUCTIONS, AVERAGE GROWTH, AVERAGE GROWTH RATE, AVERAGE INCOME, AVERAGE INCOMES, BARRIERS TO ENTRY, BUREAUCRACY, BUSINESS CLIMATE, BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT, BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT, CAPITAL FLIGHT, CAPITAL MARKETS, COMMODITIES, COMMODITY, COMMODITY PRICE, COMMODITY PRICES, COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGY, COMPETITION POLICY, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONTRACT ENFORCEMENT, CORRUPTION, COUNTRY CASE, COUNTRY COVERAGE, COUNTRY DATA, COUNTRY LEVEL, CRIME, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, DEBT, DECISION MAKING, DEPENDENT VARIABLE, DEREGULATION, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING REGIONS, DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE, DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, DEVELOPMENT PRACTITIONERS, DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS, DIRECT INVESTMENT, ECONOMETRIC MODELS, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC CRISIS, ECONOMIC DECLINE, ECONOMIC EXPANSION, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC HISTORY, ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, ECONOMIC POLICY, ECONOMIC STRUCTURE, ECONOMIES OF SCALE, EMPIRICAL LITERATURE, EMPIRICAL RESULTS, ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS, EXCESS DEMAND, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORT PROMOTION, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL SHOCKS, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FINANCIAL SECTOR REFORMS, FINANCIAL SYSTEMS, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL DEFICITS, FISCAL POLICIES, FISCAL POLICY, FIXED CAPITAL, FOOD PRICES, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS, FORMAL ECONOMY, GDP, GDP DEFLATOR, GDP PER CAPITA, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GLOBAL MARKETS, GOVERNANCE INDICATOR, GOVERNANCE INDICATORS, GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS, GROWTH DETERMINANTS, GROWTH LITERATURE, GROWTH PERFORMANCE, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HEALTH CARE, HIGH GROWTH, HIGH INFLATION, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, INCOME DATA, INCOME GROWTH, INCOME INEQUALITY, INCOME LEVEL, INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT, INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES, INEQUALITY, INFANT MORTALITY, INFLATION, INSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCE, INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS, INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLES, INSTITUTIONAL WEAKNESSES, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS, INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, INVESTMENT RATE, INVESTMENT RATES, JOB CREATION, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKET, LANDLOCKED COUNTRIES, LIFE EXPECTANCY, LONG-RUN GROWTH, LONGRUN, MACRO POLICY, MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, MARKET INFRASTRUCTURE, MARKET REGULATION, MASSIVE INVESTMENTS, MEAN GROWTH, MULTILATERAL INSTITUTIONS, NATIONAL ACCOUNTS, NATIONAL INCOME, NATURAL RESOURCE, NATURAL RESOURCES, NEGATIVE IMPACT, OIL EXPORTERS, OUTPUT, OUTPUT RATIOS, PER CAPITA GROWTH, PER CAPITA INCOME, PERFORMANCE INDICATORS, POLICY MAKERS, POLICY PERSPECTIVE, POLICY REFORMS, POLITICAL COMPETITION, POLITICAL ECONOMY, POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS, POLITICAL LEADERS, POLITICAL STABILITY, POLITICAL SUPPORT, POOR COUNTRIES, POVERTY RATES, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRICE MOVEMENTS, PRIMARY EDUCATION, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT, PRODUCTIVITY, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC EMPLOYMENT, PUBLIC EXPENDITURE, PUBLIC EXPENDITURES, PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC POLICY, PUBLIC SECTOR, PUBLIC SECTOR MANAGEMENT, PUBLIC WORKS, PURCHASING POWER, PURCHASING POWER PARITY, RAPID EXPANSION, RAPID GROWTH, RATE OF GROWTH, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, REGULATORY QUALITY, REGULATORY REGIME, RICH COUNTRIES, RULE OF LAW, RURAL INFRASTRUCTURE, SAVINGS, SHARP REDUCTION, SMALL ENTERPRISES, SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE, SOCIAL OUTCOMES, SOCIAL VARIABLES, STANDARD DEVIATION, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, STRUCTURAL BREAK, STRUCTURAL POLICIES, TELECOMMUNICATIONS, TELEPHONES, TOTAL COSTS, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, TRADE REFORMS, TRADE REGIME, TRANSACTION COSTS, TRANSPARENCY, TRANSPARENCY INITIATIVE, UNEMPLOYMENT, VOLATILITY, WAGES, WEALTH, WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, WTO, YOUTH