An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of Climate Variables on National Level Economic Growth
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The influence of climate on economic
growth is a topic of growing interest. Few studies have
investigated the potential role that climate hazards and
their cumulative effects have on the growth prospects for a
country. Due to the relatively stationary spatial patterns
of global climate, some regions and countries are more prone
to climate hazards and climate variability than others. This
study uses a precipitation index that preserves the spatial
and temporal variability of precipitation and differentiates
between precipitation maximums (such as floods) and minimums
(such as droughts). The authors develop a year and country
fixed effects regression model to test the influence of
climate variables on measures of economic growth and
activity. The results indicate that precipitation extremes
(floods and droughts) are the dominant climate influence on
economic growth and that the effects are significant and
negative. The drought index is associated with a highly
significant negative influence on growth of growth domestic
product, while the flood index is associated with a negative
influence on growth of gross domestic product and lagged
effects on growth. Temperature has little significant
effect. These results have important implications for
economic projections of climate change impacts. In addition,
adaptation strategies should give new consideration to the
importance of water resources given the identification of
precipitation extremes as the key climate influence on
historical growth of gross domestic product.
Palabras clave
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL, ANNUAL PRECIPITATION, ANOMALOUSLY WET CONDITIONS, APPLIED METEOROLOGY, CALCULATION, CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENTS, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, CLIMATE CONDITIONS, CLIMATE DATA, CLIMATE EFFECT, CLIMATE EFFECTS, CLIMATE EVENTS, CLIMATE EXTREMES, CLIMATE FACTORS, CLIMATE HAZARDS, CLIMATE IMPACT, CLIMATE IMPACTS, CLIMATE RISKS, CLIMATE SCIENTISTS, CLIMATE SIGNAL, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, CLIMATE VARIABLE, CLIMATE VARIABLES, CLIMATE VARIATION, CLIMATES, CLIMATIC CHANGE, COSTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, DAILY PRECIPITATION, DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE, DAMAGES, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DROUGHT, DROUGHT INDEX, DROUGHT INDICES, DROUGHT SEVERITY, DUST, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC DATA, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC IMPACTS, ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE, ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, ECONOMIC INDICATORS, ECONOMIC MODELS, ECONOMIC SYSTEMS, ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, EFFECT OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY, ELECTRICITY, ENERGY ECONOMICS, ENERGY SOURCES, ESTIMATES OF PRECIPITATION, EXCESS RAINFALL, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, EXPOSURE TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY, FERTILIZERS, FLOOD, FLOOD EVENTS, FLOOD HAZARD, FLOOD RISK, FLOODING, FLOODS, FOOD SECURITY, FUTURE PRECIPITATION, GCM, GLOBAL CLIMATE, GLOBAL SCALE, GLOBAL TEMPERATURES, GLOBAL WARMING, IMPACT OF CLIMATE, IMPACTS FROM CLIMATE CHANGE, IMPACTS OF DROUGHT, INCOME, INSURANCE, INSURANCE MECHANISMS, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, LOW RAINFALL, METEOROLOGY, MONETARY ECONOMICS, MONSOON, NEGATIVE IMPACT, NEGATIVE IMPACTS, PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX, POLICY IMPLICATIONS, POLICY MAKERS, PRECIPITATION, PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES, PRECIPITATION PATTERNS, RAINFALL, RAINFALL ANOMALIES, RAINFALL VARIABILITY, RAINFALL VARIATIONS, RAINY SEASON, REGIONAL SCALE PRECIPITATION, RESOURCE ECONOMICS, RISK AVERSION, RISK MANAGEMENT, SINK, SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INDEX, STRATEGY FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE, TEMPERATURE, TEMPERATURE CHANGES, TEMPERATURE DATA, TEMPERATURE EFFECT, TEMPERATURE EFFECTS, TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY, TEMPERATURES, TEMPORAL VARIABILITY, TERRESTRIAL SURFACE CLIMATE, TROPICS, VARIABILITY OF RAINFALL, WEATHER