Rwanda: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks

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dc.creatorMukashov, Askar
dc.creatorWarner, James
dc.creatorJones, Eleanor
dc.creatorThurlow, James
dc.date2024-12-20
dc.date2024-12-20T19:20:32Z
dc.date2024-12-20T19:20:32Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:26:34Z
dc.descriptionThis study explores Rwanda’s vulnerability to economic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Rwandan Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data to capture domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices uncertainty for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Key findings suggest that domestic root and cereal yield volatility risks are the most important for GDP, poverty, and undernourishment outcomes, while external factors like world energy prices pose the most significant risks to high-income households’ consumption. Understanding how possible shocks would impact various segments of the Rwandan economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/168183
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/104505
dc.languageen
dc.publisherInternational Food Policy Research Institute
dc.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/158180
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceMukashov, Askar; Warner, James; Jones, Eleanor; and Thurlow, James. 2024. Rwanda: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks. Economywide Risk Assessment Country Brief 1. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168183
dc.subjectrisk assessment
dc.subjectclimate
dc.subjectshock
dc.subjecteconomic shock
dc.subjectmarket prices
dc.subjectcomputable general equilibrium models
dc.subjectmachine learning
dc.subjectagriculture
dc.subjectcrop yield
dc.titleRwanda: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks
dc.typeBrief

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)