Armenia Demographic Change :
            Implications for Social Policy and Poverty

World Bank

Armenia Demographic Change : Implications for Social Policy and Poverty

Autores

World Bank

Editor

World Bank

Descripción

This note provides an overview of demographic changes and their policy implications in Armenia, with particular reference to the poor. Armenia is currently experiencing a significant aging of the population and decrease in the size of the population, these changes have far-reaching implications. The fertility rate in Armenia has fallen dramatically, from about 4.5 children per woman in the 1950s to 1.74 children per woman at present, which is well under the fertility rate required for population replacement. Armenia's population, which stood at 3.5 million people in 1990, is expected to decrease to 3 million by 2050. This trend, combined with increasing life expectancy, underlies the growing rise in the percentage of elderly persons and the decline in the working-age population. This note provides an overview of the key demographic changes unfolding in Armenia, highlights their linkages with social spending, and draws policy implications for labor force participation, productivity, and ultimately for Armenia's development and poverty reduction trajectory. The note is structured as follows: section two summarizes the key demographic trends underway in Armenia; section three presents a profile of poverty and social spending by age; section four analyzes the four policy issues as listed in column 2 of table 1. In each of these three sections, the poverty reduction angle is emphasized. The final section provides a summary of the key messages.

Palabras clave

ACCESS TO HEALTH CARE, ACTIVE LABOR, ACTIVE LABOR MARKET, ACTIVE LABOR MARKET POLICIES, ACTIVE LABOR MARKET PROGRAMS, ADULT EDUCATION, ADULT POPULATION, AGE DISTRIBUTION, AGE GROUP, AGED, AGING, AGING POPULATION, AGING POPULATIONS, ANNUITIES, AVERAGE WAGE, BASIC BENEFIT, BASIC PENSION, BENEFIT LEVELS, CANCER, CAPITAL INVESTMENTS, CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE, CHILD CARE, CHILDREN PER WOMAN, CITIZENS, DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE, DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS, DEPENDENCY RATIO, DEPENDENCY RATIOS, DISABILITY, DRIVERS, EARLY CHILDHOOD, ECONOMIC GROWTH, EDUCATION SYSTEMS, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, ELDERLY, ELDERLY PERSONS, ELDERLY POPULATION, EMPLOYEE, EQUALITY OF OPPORTUNITY, FAMILY MEMBERS, FEMALE LABOR, FEMALE LABOR FORCE, FEMALE LIFE EXPECTANCY, FERTILITY, FERTILITY RATE, FERTILITY RATES, FEWER PEOPLE, FORMAL LABOR MARKET, FUNDED PENSIONS, GOVERNMENT CAPACITY, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROSS REPLACEMENT RATE, HEALTH CARE, HEALTH CARE SERVICES, HEALTH OUTCOMES, HEALTH SECTOR, HEALTH SYSTEM, HEALTH SYSTEMS, HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT, HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, HOSPITAL, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, HUMAN CAPITAL, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, HUMAN RESOURCES, IMPLICATIONS FOR POVERTY REDUCTION, INCOME SUPPORT, INFORMAL SECTOR, INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, JOB CREATION, JOB OPPORTUNITIES, JOB SEARCH, JOB SEARCH ASSISTANCE, JOBS, LABOR FORCE, LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION, LABOR MARKET, LABOR PRODUCTIVITY, LABOR SUPPLY, LABOUR, LIFE EXPECTANCY, LIFE-LONG LEARNING, LIFELONG LEARNING, LIVING CONDITIONS, LIVING STANDARDS, LOCAL AUTHORITIES, LOW FERTILITY, MEDICAL CARE, MINISTRY OF EDUCATION, MORTALITY, NUMBER OF WORKERS, OCCUPATIONS, OLD AGE, OLD-AGE, OLDER AGE GROUPS, OLDER PEOPLE, OLDER WORKERS, PATIENT, PENSION, PENSION BENEFIT, PENSION BENEFITS, PENSION COST, PENSION REFORM, PENSION RIGHTS, PENSION SIZE, PENSION SPENDING, PENSION SYSTEM, PENSION SYSTEMS, PENSION TRANSFERS, PENSION VALUE, PENSIONER, PENSIONERS, PENSIONS, POLICY IMPLICATIONS, POLICY LEVER, POLITICAL INSTABILITY, POPULATION DECLINE, POPULATION DIVISION, POPULATION DYNAMICS, POPULATION ESTIMATES, POPULATION SHIFTS, POPULATION SIZE, PREVIOUS SECTION, PRICE GROWTH, PRIMARY OBJECTIVE, PRODUCTIVITY GAINS, PUBLIC SERVICE, REFORM LAWS, REPLACEMENT RATES, RESPECT, RETIREES, RETIREMENT, RETIREMENT AGE, RETIREMENT AGES, RETIREMENT BENEFITS, RETIREMENT INCOME, RETIREMENT-INCOME, RETURN MIGRATION, RURAL AREAS, SCHOOL CHILDREN, SCHOOL-AGE CHILDREN, SECONDARY EDUCATION, SERVICE DELIVERY, SEX, SEX RATIO, SEX RATIOS, SEX-SELECTIVE ABORTIONS, SICK LEAVE, SIGNIFICANT POLICY, SKILLS DEVELOPMENT, SOCIAL AFFAIRS, SOCIAL ASSISTANCE, SOCIAL CONTRIBUTIONS, SOCIAL EXPENDITURES, SOCIAL INSURANCE, SOCIAL INSURANCE FUND, SOCIAL ISSUES, SOCIAL PENSIONS, SOCIAL POLICIES, SOCIAL POLICY, SOCIAL PROGRAMS, SOCIAL PROTECTION, SOCIAL SECURITY, SOCIAL TRANSFER, SOCIAL WELFARE, TAX RATES, TOTAL LABOR FORCE, UNEMPLOYED, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFIT, UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, VOCATIONAL EDUCATION, VULNERABLE GROUPS, WAGE GROWTH, WAGE LEVELS, WAGES, WORKER, WORKER PRODUCTIVITY, WORKFORCE, WORKING-AGE POPULATION, WORLD POPULATION, YOUNG ADULTS, YOUNG CHILDREN, YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT