Breaking the Waves? Does Education Mediate the Relationship Between Youth Bulges and Political Violence?
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Much of the developing world has
experienced a decline in mortality, while fertility often
has remained high. This has produced youthful populations in
many countries, generally referred to as "youth
bulges." Recent empirical research suggests that youth
bulges may be associated with increased risks of political
violence and conflict. This paper addresses ways that
education may serve as a strategy to reduce the risk of
political violence, particularly in the context of large
cohorts of young males. The authors use a new education
dataset measuring educational attainment. The dataset is
constructed using demographic back-projection techniques,
and offers uninterrupted time-series data for 120 countries.
The empirical analysis finds evidence that large, young male
population bulges are more likely to increase the risk of
conflict in societies where male secondary education is low.
The effect on conflict risk by low education and large youth
populations is particularly strong in low and middle-income
countries. This is especially challenging for Sub-Saharan
Africa, the region facing the youngest age structure and the
lowest educational attainment levels. Although quantitative
studies generally find a strong relationship between
indicators of development and conflict risk, the results
suggest that poor countries do have some leverage over
reducing conflict potential through increased educational
opportunities for young people. There is further evidence
that the interaction of large youth cohorts and low
education levels may be mediated by structural economic
factors. The study supports broad policy interventions in
education by relaxing concerns about the consequences of
rapid educational expansion.
Palabras clave
ACCESS TO EDUCATION, ADULT POPULATION, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, ARMED CONFLICT, BASIC EDUCATION, BOTH SEXES, CENSUSES, CENTER FOR DEVELOPMENT, CIVIL CONFLICT, CIVIL WAR, CONTINUOUS EDUCATION, CURRICULA, DEMOCRACY, DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE, DEPENDENCY RATIO, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES, ECONOMIC PROGRESS, EDUCATION FOR ALL, EDUCATION VARIABLES, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, EDUCATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS, EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES, EDUCATIONAL PLANNING, EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES, ENROLLMENT, FEMALE EDUCATION, FERTILITY, FERTILITY TRANSITION, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, GENDER DISPARITIES, GENDER DISPARITIES IN EDUCATION, GENOCIDE, GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS, HUMAN CAPITAL, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, IMPORTANT POLICY, INFANT, INFANT MORTALITY, INFANT MORTALITY RATE, INFANT MORTALITY RATES, INTERVENTIONS, INVESTMENTS IN EDUCATION, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKETS, LACK OF INFORMATION, LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT, LEVEL OF EDUCATION, LEVELS OF EDUCATION, LIVING CONDITIONS, MALE YOUTH, MANUALS, MIGRANTS, MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS, MORTALITY, NATIONAL EDUCATION, NATURAL RESOURCE, NATURAL RESOURCES, OLD MALES, OLD MEN, PEACE, PERPETRATORS OF VIOLENCE, POLICY FORMULATION, POLICY IMPLICATIONS, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POLITICAL CHANGE, POLITICAL UNREST, POPULATION ACTION, POPULATION ACTION INTERNATIONAL, POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT, POPULATION DIVISION, POPULATION DYNAMICS, POPULATION ESTIMATES, POPULATION MATTERS, POPULATION SIZE, PRACTITIONERS, PRIMARY EDUCATION, PRIMARY ENROLLMENT, PRIMARY ENROLLMENT RATES, PRIMARY SCHOOL, PRIMARY SCHOOLING, PROGRESS, PURCHASING POWER, RISK FACTORS, SECONDARY EDUCATION, SECONDARY SCHOOL, SECONDARY SCHOOLING, SEX, SOCIAL COHESION, SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, SOCIAL RESEARCH, SOCIAL UNREST, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, TERTIARY EDUCATION, TERTIARY LEVEL, TEXTBOOKS, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNFPA, UNITED NATIONS POPULATION FUND, URBANIZATION, VIOLENCE, WAGES, WARS, WORLD POPULATION, YOUNG MALE, YOUNG MALES, YOUNG MEN, YOUNG PEOPLE, YOUTH, YOUTH EMPLOYMENT, YOUTH MOVEMENTS, YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT