Ethiopia : Explaining Food Price Inflation
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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This study sheds some light on the
challenges facing policy makers in Ethiopia, but much
remains to be better understood. Over the past three years,
food price inflation in Ethiopia has been persistently high,
and overall inflation has been in double. While the spike in
2002 can be broadly explained by the drought-induced output
shock that year, over the period as a whole, food price -
and in particular grain price - trends present a puzzle in
several respects. This is a serious concern for
policy-makers, not least because the poor spend most of
their income on food, and are adversely affected by rising
prices. Even in rural areas, it is estimated that about half
the population are net buyers of food. The issue of food
price inflation has attracted rising concern in the national
media and among policy makers, academics and of course the
public at large, as well as among development partners. The
structure of this note is as: authors review the key
features of Ethiopian grain markets, before laying out a
basic methodological approach to analyze the drivers of
inflation, followed by a review of the relative importance
of different explanatory factors on the demand, supply and
marketing sides. Authors then turn to explore the impacts of
food price changes on households, drawing on the most recent
household data available. The final section highlights
emerging policy conclusions.
Palabras clave
ADVERSE IMPACTS, AGGREGATE DEMAND, AGGREGATE SUPPLY, AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY, AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT, AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS, AGRICULTURAL GOODS, AGRICULTURAL MARKET, AGRICULTURAL MARKETING, AGRICULTURAL MARKETS, AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT, AGRICULTURAL PRICES, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCT, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION SYSTEMS, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS, AGRICULTURAL SECTORS, AGRICULTURAL VALUE, AGRICULTURE, AGRICULTURE MARKETS, AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION, AUCTION, AVERAGE PRICE, BAKING, BASE YEAR, BENCHMARK, BORDER PRICES, CAPACITY BUILDING, CENTRAL BANK, CENTRAL BANKS, CEREAL PRICES, CEREAL PRODUCTION, CEREAL YIELD, CEREALS, COMBINES, COMMERCIALIZATION, COMMODITIES, COMMODITY EXCHANGE, COMMODITY PRICE, COMMODITY PRICES, CONSUMER PRICE, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMERS, COST OF LIVING, CROP PRODUCTION, CROP ROTATION, CUTTING, DEBT, DEMAND FOR FOOD, DEMAND MANAGEMENT, DIVIDENDS, DOMESTIC PRODUCERS, ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS, ECONOMIC TRENDS, EDIBLE OILS, ELASTICITY, ELASTICITY OF DEMAND, EXCESS DEMAND, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT, EXPORT TRADE, FARM, FARM EMPLOYMENT, FARM INCOME, FARM INPUTS, FARMERS, FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS, FINANCIAL MARKET, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FOOD AID, FOOD AVAILABILITY, FOOD CROPS, FOOD DEMAND, FOOD EXPENDITURES, FOOD IMPORTS, FOOD MARKETS, FOOD POLICY, FOOD POLICY RESEARCH, FOOD PRICE INFLATION, FOOD PRICES, FOOD PRODUCTION, FOOD SECURITY, FOOD SUPPLY, FOOD TRANSFERS, FOODS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FRUITS, GDP, GLUTEN, GRAIN, GRAIN PRICES, GRAIN PRODUCTION, GRAIN TRADER, GRAIN TRADERS, GRAINS, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROWTH RATE, HOUSEHOLDS, HUMAN CAPITAL, IFPRI, IMPORT TARIFFS, INCOME, INCOME EFFECTS, INCOME ELASTICITY OF DEMAND, INFLATION RATE, INPUT PRICES, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE, INTERNATIONAL MARKET, INTERNATIONAL MARKETS, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, LIQUIDITY, LIVE ANIMALS, LIVESTOCK, LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS, LIVESTOCK SECTOR, M2, MAIZE, MARKET INFORMATION, MARKET INTEGRATION, MARKET PRICE, MARKET PRICES, MARKET SHARE, MARKET SUPPLY, MARKETING, MEAT, MERCHANDISE, MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, MIDDLEMEN, MILLS, MOBILIZATION, MONETARY POLICY, MONEY SUPPLY, PARITY PRICE, PEPPER, PER CAPITA INCOME, PER CAPITA INCOMES, POTATO, PRICE ADJUSTMENT, PRICE ADJUSTMENTS, PRICE CEILING, PRICE CHANGE, PRICE CHANGES, PRICE DECLINES, PRICE DETERMINATION, PRICE EFFECT, PRICE FORECASTS, PRICE INCREASE, PRICE INCREASES, PRICE INFLATION, PRICE LEVEL, PRICE LEVELS, PRICE MOVEMENTS, PRICE TREND, PRICE TRENDS, PRIVATE STORAGE, PRODUCT MARKET, PRODUCTION COSTS, PRODUCTION INCREASES, PRODUCTIVITY, PULSES, PURCHASING, PURCHASING POWER, REAL GDP, REAL INTEREST RATE, RURAL AREAS, SALES, STOCKS, STORAGE CAPACITY, STRUCTURAL CHANGE, SUBSISTENCE AGRICULTURE, SUBSTITUTION, SUGAR, SUPPLY INCREASE, SUPPLY INCREASES, SURPLUS, SURPLUSES, T-BILLS, TRADE FLOWS, TRANSACTION, TRANSACTIONS COSTS, TRANSACTIONS DEMAND FOR MONEY, TREASURY BILLS, VALUE ADDED, VOLATILITY, WAREHOUSE, WEALTH, WFP, WHEAT, WHOLESALE PRICE, WHOLESALE PRICES, WORLD FOOD PROGRAM