Thailand Economic Monitor, June 2010
No hay miniatura disponible
Fecha
Autores
Título de la revista
ISSN de la revista
Título del volumen
Editor
Washington, DC
Resumen
Descripción
The Thai economy runs on a single
engine: external demand. The economic roller coaster since
the onset of the global financial crisis can be
overwhelmingly attributed to fluctuations in the output of
three sectors most sensitive to external demand:
manufacturing, logistics (transportation and storage), and
tourism (hotels and restaurants). As global trade contracted
between the fourth quarter of 2008 and first quarter of
2009, Thailand's real gross domestic product (GDP) fell
6.3 percent, before rebounding 6.9 percent through the end
of 2009 on a revival in actual and expected external demand.
At the end of 2009, real GDP was back to pre-crisis levels,
as measured in seasonally adjusted terms. For 2009 as a
whole, however, real GDP fell 2.2 percent. The dominance of
sectors linked to external demand over Thailand's
growth dynamics is not new. Both sets of sectors grew at
about the same pace prior to the 1997 financial crisis.
However, a structural break took place in the aftermath of
the crisis, when sectors linked to external demand grew an
average of 6.1 percent between 2001 and 2007 compared to a
4.3 percent growth rate of other sectors. While the sectors
linked to external demand are expected to grow below the
historical average in the near term due to lower growth in
demand from advanced economies, a reversal of the structural
change observed since 1998 is unlikely. This will require an
acceleration of the growth of the sectors linked to domestic
demand. But the constraints that limited the growth of these
sectors in the past not only remain but have been compounded
in the near term by the escalation of the political
conflict. This will ensure that growth rates in sectors
linked to domestic demand will also remain below their
(already low) historical averages and the dominance of
external demand on the economy will continue to increase.
Palabras clave
ACCOUNTING, ADVANCED ECONOMIES, AGRICULTURE, ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENT, ASSET PRICE, ASSETS, AVERAGE OIL PRICE, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BENCHMARK, BID, BOND MARKET, BOND MARKETS, BOND PRICES, BONDS, BUDGET DEFICIT, CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS, CAPITAL ACCOUNT, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, CAPITAL ADEQUACY, CAPITAL FLOWS, CAPITAL GOODS, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CAPITAL MARKET, CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT, CAPITAL OUTFLOWS, CLEARING HOUSE, COMMERCIAL BANKS, COMMODITY PRICES, COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSOLIDATION, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, CONSUMER PREFERENCES, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMERS, CORPORATE BOND, CORRELATION ANALYSIS, CORRELATION COEFFICIENT, CPI, CREDIT BUREAU, CREDIT GROWTH, CURRENCY, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS, CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUSES, DEBT, DEBT CRISIS, DEBT LEVELS, DEBT RATING, DEMAND GROWTH, DEPOSIT, DEPOSITS, DISBURSEMENTS, DOMESTIC DEMAND, DOMESTIC INVESTORS, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC COOPERATION, ECONOMIC CRISIS, ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, ECONOMIC OUTCOMES, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, ECONOMIC RESEARCH, ECONOMIC SHOCK, EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE, EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATES, EQUILIBRIUM, EQUIPMENT, EQUITY MARKETS, EXCESS CAPACITY, EXCHANGE COMMISSION, EXCHANGE RATES, EXIT STRATEGIES, EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS, EXPORT EARNINGS, EXPORT GOODS, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORT PERFORMANCE, EXPORT VOLUME, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL DEMAND, FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL INSTITUTION, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL POLICIES, FISCAL POLICY, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, FORECASTS, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN INVESTMENT, FOREIGN RESERVES, FORESTRY, FREE TRADE, FREE TRADE AGREEMENT, FUTURES, FUTURES EXCHANGE, GDP, GLOBAL DEMAND, GLOBAL INTEREST, GLOBAL TRADE, GOLD, GOVERNMENT BOND, GOVERNMENT BONDS, GOVERNMENT SECURITIES, GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT, HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES, IMPORT, IMPORT CONTENT, IMPORT DEMAND, IMPORT GROWTH, IMPORT PRICES, IMPORTS, IMPORTS GOODS, INCOME, INDEBTEDNESS, INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIES, INFLATION, INFLATION RATES, INFLATION RISKS, INFLATIONARY PRESSURES, INTEREST RATES, INTERMEDIATE GOODS, INTERNATIONAL INTEREST, INTERNATIONAL INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL RESERVES, INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, INVENTORIES, INVENTORY, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, KEY RISK, KEY RISKS, LABOR COSTS, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKETS, LEADING INDICATORS, LOCAL CURRENCIES, LOW INTEREST RATES, MARKET PRICES, MARKET SHARE, METALS, MONETARY POLICIES, MONETARY POLICY, MORTGAGE, MULTINATIONAL COMPANIES, MULTIPLIER EFFECT, NATIONAL CREDIT, NET EXPORTS, NON-PERFORMING LOAN, NPL, OIL COMMODITIES, OIL COMMODITY, OIL COMMODITY PRICES, OIL PRICE, POLITICAL STABILITY, POLITICAL TURMOIL, POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRICE INSURANCE, PRIVATE CONSUMPTION, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PRIVATE INVESTMENTS, PRIVATE SAVING, PRODUCTION PROCESSES, PROTECTIONIST MEASURES, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENT, PUBLIC EXPENDITURE, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC INVESTMENTS, PURCHASING POWER, REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE, REAL GDP, RECESSION, RECESSIONS, RETURN, REVALUATION, RISK AVERSION, RISK MANAGEMENT, RISK PREMIUMS, SHORTFALLS, SLACK, SOVEREIGN DEBT, SPEED OF ADJUSTMENT, STANDARD DEVIATION, STOCK EXCHANGE, STOCK MARKET, STOCK MARKETS, STOCKS, STRUCTURAL CHANGE, STRUCTURAL REFORM, SUPPLY RESPONSE, SUSTAINABLE GROWTH, TAX INCREASES, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, TRADE NEGOTIATIONS, TRADE REGIME, TRADE TRANSACTIONS, TRADING PARTNERS, TRANSACTIONS COSTS, TROUGH, UNCERTAINTIES, UNCERTAINTY, UNDERESTIMATES, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, VALUATION, VALUE ADDED, VALUE INDEX, VALUE INDICES, WAGE DIFFERENTIALS, WAGES, WEALTH, WORLD ECONOMY, WORLD TRADE